A new opinion piece by Kate Aronoff warns that complacency over Hillary Clinton's likely victory in the US presidential election could be dangerous. While polls suggest a strong lead, Aronoff argues that a last-minute upset remains possible, with a full 15% of voters undecided and the candidates neck-and-neck in key swing states.
The New York Times gave Clinton a 92% chance of winning as of Thursday morning, while FiveThirtyEight placed Donald Trump's odds at just over 15%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with only a 4-point lead nationwide. Aronoff cautions that a narrow victory or loss could fuel Trump's claims of a 'rigged' election and spark a recount debacle similar to the 2000 Florida recount.
She also warns that a narrow defeat could embolden Trump's most irascible supporters, many of whom are armed. Low voter turnout, driven by assumptions of a Clinton win, could further harm down-ballot Democratic candidates, potentially losing the chance to flip the Senate.
Aronoff suggests that progressive activists should support Clinton to create an opponent they can pressure from the left. She notes that historic social changes in the US have come from movements pushing Democratic presidents, not from the White House alone. The rise of younger, more progressive voters, as seen in Bernie Sanders' primary campaign, signals a generational shift that could transform politics.
However, Aronoff stresses that nothing ends on election day. Making sure Clinton wins allows progressive movements to continue their work, holding her accountable on issues such as corporate influence and foreign policy.
