Labour's collapse in the Welsh Senedd election has been described as 'astonishing', with the party finishing third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. After more than a century of dominance, Welsh Labour secured just nine seats in the 96-seat parliament, prompting pro-independence Plaid Cymru to form a minority government.
First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro, becoming the first UK government leader to be defeated while in office. She resigned immediately, with Ken Skates appointed interim leader. Morgan acknowledged the rejection, stating: 'The people of Wales have rejected us and we owe it to them to listen, understand and rebuild.'
Analysts point to multiple factors behind the dramatic defeat: dissatisfaction with Labour's record on public services, particularly the NHS and education; the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer; and effective campaigning by Plaid Cymru, which framed a vote for them as the only way to stop Reform UK. The introduction of a more proportional voting system also worked against Labour.
Despite nearly 30 years of Labour governance in Wales, the nation has fallen behind other UK countries on key metrics including poverty and health outcomes. Starmer's perceived lack of interest in devolved matters, including a warning against 'overly deferential relations' with Cardiff Bay, further alienated Welsh voters. Eleven Labour Senedd members had previously written to Starmer accusing his government of 'constitutional outrage' over devolution promises.
The result marks a historic shift in Welsh politics, with Labour's once-unassailable position now in question. Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University noted the shock of the collapse, saying: 'It's hard to identify any solid territory they can actually rebuild on.'
