It's been a difficult set of results for the Labour leader. Surrounded by boxes of cold pizza, half-drunk coffee cups and cans of Diet Coke, you watch broadcasters and politicians speculate about the election results - and speculate about the speculation.
Downing Street aides decamp to Labour’s swish south London HQ on election nights and sit with party staffers in the open plan office that is a world away from the dingy, pokey warren of rooms in No10. Data from teams around the country is fed back and analysed to work out how the party has fared - but that can be as much art as science.
Last year, as polls closed, the party knew the picture was grim but thought they had held off Reform in the Runcorn byelection, called after Labour’s Mike Amesbury punched a constituent. Sadly the voters fought back, delivering a narrow but painful defeat that installed Reform’s Sarah Pochin in Parliament.
That was just one of many losses. But they pale by comparison with the results we have seen this week. Labour have lost to everyone, everywhere all at once. Losses may not reach the most apocalyptic predictions but a century of electoral dominance in Wales is over, Scotland – which until recently was in their sights – will see a third decade of SNP rule and party has shed votes to both Reform and the Greens across England.
Keir Starmer was right not to try to sugar coat them. As the results were coming in, and lines to take were drafted for Labour ministers on the gruelling media rounds, thoughts will also have been on how to regain the initiative.
The Prime Minister has two main levers: personnel and policy. Keir could decide to shake up his ministerial team, as he did last September. But reshuffles cause more problems than they solve. Yes, you make the small number of colleagues you promote happy. Those who are sacked, however, are furious. And the masses ranks who are passed over will be disappointed, sometimes bitterly.
When Lucy Powell was sacked in the autumn she went on to be elected deputy Labour leader. Lucy now attends political Cabinet, held without civil servants so that the PM can discuss strategy and party matters with his senior ministerial team and Labour officials.
The PM has been tipped to find a government job for Sir Sadiq Khan to shore up his support. Like Lucy, the London mayor is on the left of the party. Adding Sadiq to political Cabinet could be an easier way to bind him in. The PM could even make the same offer to leadership rival Andy Burnham.
On policy, Keir is expected to deliver a major speech next week, ahead of the King’s Speech which will set out the government’s legislative agenda for the next Parliament.
He is set to double down on closer alignment with the Europe Union to boost the economy. While that risks going down badly with Labour supporters who voted for Brexit, particularly in the ‘red wall’, it will be welcomed by the party’s overwhelmingly pro-EU activists.
But given the growing impact Iran is having on the price of fuel, food and other essentials, measures on the cost of living must be a priority. These results have inevitably triggered questions about Keir’s leadership.
Those in Labour’s ranks debating who should be leader are asking the wrong question. Instead, they should be asking how the government can do more to make people better off and confident about the future.
At the heart of these results is anger, even fury, over living standards which have stagnated or fallen since the 2008 financial crash and a sense that things are only going to get worse for families, communities and the country. Ever since the credit crunch the public have hit the big red button marked ‘change’ at every opportunity they have been given.
They did it when they voted for the coalition in 2010, the Tories in 2015, for Brexit in 2016, Boris Johnson in 2019 and Keir Starmer and Labour in 2024. Voters are going to keep hitting that big red button until someone does change their lives for the better.
