Seven months after a ceasefire with Israel, Hamas is at a crossroads. The militant group has been without a permanent political leader since the death of Yahya Sinwar in 2024. With the next phase of a US-brokered ceasefire looking precarious, experts say the impact of their leadership vote will be felt across the region.
Hamas Leadership Election
The future of the Gaza Strip hangs in the balance as Hamas prepares to elect its first political leader since Sinwar's death. Depleted but still operational after more than two years of war, Hamas has been holding a secretive internal ballot to decide who will run its political wing. The decision has been delayed by Israel's invasion and bombardment of the enclave. Reports suggest a new leader has been chosen, but it remains unclear when Hamas will formally announce the identity.
One report in Egyptian newspaper Al Manassa states that Khalil al-Hayya, a Gaza-born close associate of Sinwar, has won the leadership with 65 per cent of the vote. However, others claim that Khaled Mashal, a long-serving Qatar-based member of Hamas's politburo who led the group from 1996 to 2017, has won the ballot.
Moderates vs. Hawks?
The election has been portrayed as a choice between the more moderate Mashal and the hawkish al-Hayya. Zaher Jabarin, the leader of Hamas in the West Bank, was also a candidate. The trio are based in Doha and share the title of acting chairman of the Hamas political bureau. Peace talks between Hamas and Israel have stalled despite a ceasefire in October 2025. Hundreds have been killed by Israeli fire in Gaza since the ceasefire, and the military has continued advancing from the agreed 'yellow line'.
Mashal, born in the West Bank, is believed to be more open to working with the Palestinian Authority (PA) and holds close diplomatic ties with Turkey and Qatar. Al-Hayya serves as the de facto leader of Gaza and is one of the group's chief negotiators. 'Al-Hayya lost two sons in the war,' says Dr Yaniv Voller, an expert at the University of Kent. 'He is reportedly closer to Iran, which might indicate a stronger inclination to resume armed struggle.'
Michael Milshtein, an expert on Hamas at Tel Aviv University, says it is 'far more important to continue developing the issue of control in Gaza and the matter of military rebuilding.' Dr Rob Geist Pinfold of King's College London suggests that Mashal, al-Hayya, and Jabarin have been elected into senior roles, with Mashal at the helm. If confirmed, this would indicate the elections served as a 'rubber stamp' for the existing balance of power.
The Western tendency to view the election as a choice between hawks and moderates does not reflect the complex reality of Hamas's internal politics. 'Both groups have different reasons to be moderate or extreme,' says Dr Pinfold. 'The Doha group are diplomats with relations to world leaders, so we see them as moderates, but they are also prone to bombastic rhetoric. The military wing in Gaza, the al-Qassam Brigades, are viewed as more hardline given their role in the October 7 attacks, but they have a domestic constituency to answer to.'
Will Hamas Change Its Approach?
In the absence of truly reformist candidates, there is little prospect of wholesale change in Hamas's approach to controlling Gaza and projecting power internationally. Concerns are growing about the group's influence in the West Bank increasing despite the reelection of Mahmoud Abbas as leader of Fatah. At 90 years old, Abbas faces mounting pressure to implement reforms and tackle corruption.
'Succession battles are beginning to take place,' says Dr Voller. 'Hamas is more popular in the West Bank than in Gaza, and the situation there seems to be spiralling toward instability, partly due to intensifying settler violence.' On Thursday, Abbas reiterated pledges to reform the PA and hold long-delayed elections during the Fatah party conference. Dr Voller warns that the PA 'should and could play an important role in Gaza's reconstruction,' but its 'collapse into internal rivalries could have an even more detrimental impact on the lives of Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank.'
