France's 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be a crowded and unpredictable contest, with the far-right National Rally (RN) holding a commanding lead in opinion polls. Party leader Jordan Bardella, 30, is polling as high as 38% for the first round, seemingly assured a spot in the run-off. His patron, Marine Le Pen, 57, remains ineligible unless an appeals court overturns her embezzlement conviction in July.
The anti-immigration, Eurosceptic RN's lead has intensified the search for a candidate capable of uniting the moderate right, centre, and moderate left to defeat Bardella in the final round. However, the anti-establishment mood dominating the national mood favours outsiders, complicating efforts by mainstream contenders.
The left remains deeply divided. Radical France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 74, is expected to make a fourth presidential run despite accusations of antisemitism and links to a militant group involved in a fatal attack. Polls suggest he would block other left-wing candidates but fail to reach the run-off himself unless the centre-right splinters. Centre-left figures like Raphaël Glucksmann and ex-president François Hollande are considering bids, but face significant hurdles.
On the centre-right, former prime minister Édouard Philippe, 55, emerged from recent municipal elections with enhanced prospects. Polls indicate he would narrowly beat Bardella in a run-off, making him an early frontrunner. However, French politics rarely favours early leaders, and Philippe has postponed national campaigning, focusing on mayoral duties while remaining 'on call for the republic.'
Other centre-right figures, including former prime minister Gabriel Attal, 37, are preparing bids that could split President Emmanuel Macron's diminished centrist camp. With the left hopelessly fragmented and the centre-right still coalescing, the far right appears poised to capitalise on the crowded field unless a unifying candidate emerges.
