Nigel Farage has spent his political career disrupting the political order, but with Reform UK's popularity on the rise, some in Westminster believe he could be on course to pull off the greatest political earthquake in modern British political history. Not only have recent polls pointed to Reform effectively replacing the Conservatives as the main opposition, some have even suggested Farage could enter Downing Street if such support is maintained at the next election.
Reform's poll lead is persistent, but recent. Its support first matched and overtook Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives at the start of the year. Soon after, it was vying with Labour. It was in April, as voters began to focus on local elections, that Farage's party began to enjoy a solid poll lead. The Guardian's latest poll tracker – which takes an average of the polls over the last 10 days – has Reform polling at 31%. This is 10 points ahead of Labour, on 21%.
Several pollsters now use MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) modelling to estimate how each seat might play out. The latest of these, from YouGov published on 26 September, estimated that Reform UK could win 311 seats if an election were held today. While this would be 15 seats short of an overall majority, it would put Farage in Downing St. The model suggests 231 of Reform's projected seats would be gains from Labour. Other recent MRP models have even pointed to absolute majorities for Reform.
However, pollsters themselves make clear these models come with significant uncertainty. As YouGov said on the release of its latest MRP, small changes could make a big difference. “On our central projections, Reform UK are winning no fewer than 82 seats by less than five percentage points,” it stated. “If they were to in fact lose all such hypothetical contests, they would end up falling well short of a parliamentary majority, rather than being within touching distance.”
Nevertheless, the reason Labour seats are so vulnerable to an increase in Reform's popularity goes back to the nature of its landslide election victory last year. While it secured a colossal 411 seats, it was built on an incredibly efficient distribution of votes, rather than overwhelming support. It means it is susceptible to the reverse dynamic – small losses of support in many seats could result in them ending up in the hands of others. Prof Sir John Curtice has also noted that MRPs suggest Labour would lose proportionally more votes in seats it currently holds – and more again in seats it holds where Reform came second in 2024.
There are, of course, huge caveats to all this. The most obvious is the fact that there is unlikely to be an election for years – most in Westminster don't expect one until 2028 or 2029. Polling is only ever a snapshot of current opinion, rather than a prediction. Some trends are clear, however. Reform has managed to capitalise on record unpopularity for the new Labour government. Since the general election, Labour's polling has dropped from 37.5% in July 2024 to 23.3% in June 2025 – a fall of 14.2 percentage points in a year, the worst for any government since 1983.
