Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch claimed in her response to Wednesday's Budget that business confidence has been negative for seven consecutive quarters, a situation she said has never happened before. An examination of the surveys cited by her party shows the claims do not fully match the data.
Claims and the IoD survey
Speaking in the House of Commons, Badenoch said: “Business confidence is negative, not just this quarter, and not just the last quarter, but for seven quarters in a row. That has never happened before.” She added that the last time business confidence was positive was when the Conservatives were in charge.
The Conservative Party pointed to the Institute of Directors (IoD) Directors' Economic Confidence Index as the source for her remarks. That monthly survey has been negative since August 2024, a period of just under nine quarters, not seven. It also recorded a longer negative streak from September 2021 to July 2024, contradicting the claim that such a run is unprecedented.
The ICAEW survey
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) quarterly survey matches the claim of seven consecutive negative quarters. However, it too shows a seven-quarter negative streak during the financial crisis, so the situation has happened before.
According to the ICAEW data, the last positive reading was in the fourth quarter of 2024, several months after Labour took office. The previous reading, from the third quarter of 2024, was also positive. The Press Association could not find any measure of business confidence that matches Badenoch's comments.
