As Russia's war on Ukraine enters its fifth year with no ceasefire in sight, a leading analyst argues that the European Union should fast-track Ukraine's membership to secure a lasting peace and bolster European security. Mujtaba Rahman, in a commentary, contends that while many EU governments oppose swift admission, the strategic advantages could be immense.
Rahman suggests that any future peace deal will likely involve Ukraine making de facto territorial concessions, while the US provides security guarantees and the EU offers a membership path and reconstruction aid. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sell such a deal domestically, a credible EU membership commitment is crucial, as required by Ukraine's constitution for ratification.
Beyond peace, EU membership would drive anti-corruption reforms and the rule of law in Ukraine, attracting investment and reducing postwar reconstruction costs for European taxpayers. It would also give the EU leverage vis-à-vis the US and ensure European governments have a seat at the negotiating table. Moreover, EU membership could deter future Russian aggression by complicating military planning, especially given potential shifts in US policy under Donald Trump or his movement.
Rahman highlights that Ukraine's accession would make Europe a military and agricultural superpower, given Ukraine's large, combat-experienced army and innovative defence industry. However, for this to be credible, membership must be almost immediate—closer to 2030 than 2040. EU leaders are divided, with concerns over free movement of labour, agricultural competition, corruption, contested territories like Donbas, and significant budgetary implications due to Ukraine's poverty and agrarian economy.
Despite these challenges, Rahman argues that the benefits of fast-tracking Ukraine's membership outweigh the costs, framing it as a strategic imperative for European peace and security.
