First Minister John Swinney faced angry voters during a walkabout in Hamilton on the final day of campaigning for the Scottish election. Among them was Natasha Kelly, a 35-year-old pro-independence SNP voter, who criticized the council's failure to address dampness in her flat, which she says has caused chronic asthma in her two sons. "I do believe in the SNP but I am losing faith vastly," she said. "I can't be concerned with my own country when I'm concerned about my sons."
Business Rates Fury and Social Care Woes
Gavin Boyle, owner of a popular Glasgow bar, expressed fury over a 438% hike in business rates, raising his venue's bill to £645,000. Swinney's attempt to placate him failed, and Boyle said he won't vote for any party: "They're as bad as each other." The daughter of an elderly woman struggling with social care wept as she spoke to the first minister, offering a rare insight into public emotions after a campaign described by polling analyst Mark Diffley as "uninspiring, short of fresh policy and ideas, and failed to make an impression on voters."
Polls Show SNP Falling Short of Majority
The lack of enthusiasm has resulted in the most unpredictable Scottish election in over a decade, with turnout and tactical voting potentially upending expectations. The Diffley Partnership's final projections show the SNP winning 56 seats, well short of the 65 needed for a majority. Labour would have its worst Holyrood performance with 18 seats, one behind Reform on 19. The Greens would win a record 16 seats, the Conservatives 11, and the Liberal Democrats nine.
Labour's Eve-of-Poll Rally
Scottish Labour held a noisy rally in Glasgow, where the party faces challenges from the SNP and Reform UK. Some pollsters suggest deputy leader Jackie Baillie could lose her Dumbarton seat, a forecast she dismisses. Party leader Anas Sarwar had supporters chanting: "Reject Reform, beat the SNP, change Scotland and vote Scottish Labour." Despite buoyant mood, privately Labour admits it won't beat the SNP but argues Sarwar could still challenge for first minister. Senior figures claim they could win up to 23 constituency seats and a swathe of regional top-ups, having spent £200,000 on social media advertising in the final 72 hours.
SNP Nervousness and Green Tactics
The SNP has shown nervousness, doubling down on its core vote strategy by pledging a vote on independence powers on day one of the new parliament. A-list supporters like actors Martin Compston and Alan Cummings have been drafted in, with Cummings urging pro-independence Green supporters to vote SNP in every constituency. The Scottish Greens, hoping for a breakthrough constituency, are not standing everywhere, which some see as a tactical error.
Reform's Chaotic Campaign
Reform's campaign has been chaotic, dogged by candidate resignations and social media racism revelations, and overshadowed by UK leadership announcements. Scottish leader Malcolm Offord struggled to cut through, and his boast about having "six houses, five boats and six cars" invited derision. Research suggests Scottish Reform voters are less enthused than in England or Wales, raising uncertainty about turnout, especially given reports of a lack of ground operation in areas like Aberdeen.
