China now has more people aged over 65 than children under 15, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This milestone has been reached for the first time since records began more than seven decades ago.
Demographic shift
The data, based on a nationwide sample survey, show that at least 15.87 per cent of China's nearly 1.4 billion population is aged 65 or older, compared with 15.25 per cent aged between 0 and 14. This means approximately 223.09 million people are in the 65-plus age group, while 321.22 million are aged 60 and over, accounting for 22.86 per cent of the population. About 61.89 per cent, or 869.87 million, fall within the 15-59 age group.
The figures were extrapolated from a November 'mini-census', a nationwide survey covering more than 20 million people. The data underscore China's deepening population decline, which the NBS has previously acknowledged poses mounting challenges for the country.
Ageing society
According to UN standards, a society is deemed 'ageing' when more than 7 per cent of its population is aged 65 or above, and 'aged' once that figure exceeds 14 per cent. Official data show China's births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, with the birth rate dropping to a record low. China's population decreased by 3.39 million last year, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline.
China's birth rates have been declining for decades, driven initially by the 'one-child policy' implemented from 1980 to 2015, along with rapid urbanisation. The country officially ended the policy in 2016, but it resulted in a skewed population due to a cultural preference for male children.
Factors behind the decline
Demographers believe the high cost of childcare, education, job uncertainty, and a slowing economy have discouraged many young Chinese from marrying and starting families. They also point to gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to manage the household as contributing factors to the declining birthrate.
Government response
China last month unveiled a comprehensive blueprint from 15 departments seeking to deepen 'youth-development-oriented cities' with measures covering jobs, housing, healthcare, and public services. The initiative follows Beijing's March announcement to build a 'childbirth-friendly society' from 2026 to 2030.
By 2030, the concept of youth-development-oriented cities will be widely established, the policy stated, adding that by 2035, China aims to have formed a relatively mature and complete system for youth development. Proposed measures include improving matchmaking and social services, expanding childcare subsidies, and promoting wider coverage of mother-and-baby rooms in public places. Further provisions involve enhancing maternity and paediatric care, strengthening after-school and holiday childcare, and ensuring more equal school access for migrant workers' children.
China is not alone in facing a demographic crisis; Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are also experiencing population declines due to similar factors, including restrictions on immigration.
