The mutiny against Keir Starmer has begun. Yesterday afternoon, Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from the government, declaring he no longer has faith in the prime minister's leadership. His announcement, widely seen as a precursor to a leadership bid, followed intense speculation after Labour's disastrous local elections. Hours later, Labour backbencher Josh Simons dramatically resigned his Manchester seat, hoping Andy Burnham would contest the byelection and return to Parliament. Burnham confirmed he will seek to run, but like Streeting, stopped short of openly challenging for the top job.
Streeting's Resignation and Leadership Contest
Streeting's resignation is interpreted as a strategy to force Starmer to step down. However, he lacks the support of 20% of Labour MPs needed to trigger a contest. Starmer, defiant, insists he will stay. Polling suggests Starmer would easily beat Streeting in a head-to-head contest, lose narrowly to Angela Rayner, but beat most other candidates. A returning Andy Burnham would be a major challenge. Ipsos figures show the country still prefers Starmer to Nigel Farage.
Economic Achievements Under Threat
Starmer's supporters point to economic successes: the UK economy grew 0.3% in March, exceeding expectations, and the budget cut inflation, leading to predicted interest rate cuts. However, the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have sent energy prices surging, undermining progress. Other achievements include raising the minimum wage, scrapping the two-child benefit cap, improving NHS performance, strengthening workers' rights, and managing relations with Donald Trump. Yet many MPs and the public feel this is not enough.
Quiet Success on Immigration
Annual net migration is expected to be near zero this year, down from around a million post-pandemic. Small boat crossings have fallen modestly, and the asylum backlog has dropped. But the government rarely highlights this, as Labour feels uncomfortable with the issue.
Starmer's Survival Strategy
If Starmer weathers the storm, he needs a fresh pitch. Rumours of a major push on EU relations, including a new customs union, could inflame party divisions. Remain MPs want closer ties, while 'red wall' MPs fear Reform UK. Big ideological moves are not Starmer's style, making a dramatic shift unlikely.
