The upcoming by-election in Makerfield, triggered to secure a parliamentary seat for Andy Burnham, has become a pivotal contest that could shape the future of British politics. Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, harbours ambitions of becoming Prime Minister, but his campaign has faced scrutiny over his reluctance to engage with difficult questions, particularly on Brexit, in a constituency that voted strongly to leave the EU.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, initially fielded a hyperlocal candidate, Rob Kenyon, in a strategic shift from previous by-elections. However, Kenyon's campaign was quickly undermined by the emergence of controversial social media posts, which political rivals used against him. Local reports suggest that the party has struggled to attract female voters in the constituency.
Into this void has stepped the Restore party, a splinter group led by Rupert Lowe. Restore is running a local businesswoman and has been effectively peeling off supporters from Reform UK, according to polls. Despite Farage's public confidence, the data indicates a significant challenge to his party's influence in the area.
The Conservative candidate, Michael Winstanley, continues his campaign with optimism despite polling at just 2%. His name is shared with local landmarks, and his team has noted the irony of Reform UK complaining about vote-splitting on the right.
Burnham's path to victory may be less about his own appeal and more about the electorate's desire to remove Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader. Makerfield voters, it seems, are willing to back a Labour candidate as a means to oust a Labour Prime Minister, creating a bizarre electoral dynamic.
