Cabinet ministers have issued a stern warning to mutinous Labour MPs, advising against any attempt to oust Prime Minister Keir Starmer following what is anticipated to be a disastrous set of local election results. They caution that such a move could unleash chaos within the party that would be difficult to contain.
Fragile Mood Among Backbenchers
Several ministers, speaking to the Guardian, acknowledged that despite Starmer's determination to remain in Downing Street after Thursday's vote, the atmosphere on the backbenches is febrile. They admitted that events could spiral out of control, though they discouraged any immediate coup. One minister remarked, 'When your personal brand is so poor, it is seldom retrievable,' indicating that while they back Starmer for now, they do not expect him to lead the party into the next general election.
Potential Losses and Succession Speculation
Labour faces the prospect of losing over 1,500 council seats across England, struggling for second place in Scotland, and potentially losing Wales after a century of dominance. This has left thousands of local politicians angry, viewing themselves as victims of the government's unpopularity. Before returning to their constituencies, MPs were gripped by speculation over Starmer's future, with figures like Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, and Andy Burnham seen as potential successors, though Burnham is not currently an MP.
Some MPs have argued that Starmer should set a timetable for his departure, suggesting that a group of cabinet ministers might be prepared to tell him his time is up if the results are as bad as predicted. However, the Guardian understands that the appetite inside the cabinet for a leadership contest is severely limited, even among those who believe he will step down before 2029.
Cabinet Unity and Unintended Consequences
One minister stated, 'We have a role to play and we’ll certainly not want chaos. That’s not in anybody’s interests.' Another indicated that no group in the cabinet is planning to move collectively. A third said, 'I don’t want new leaders, plots, pacts, talk of orderly transitions which shut out the public. Will there be cabinet resignations or a move against Keir? There could be, but I won’t be part of it.' A fourth minister emphasized that only Starmer will decide when he stands down, noting that he is 'in no mood to be pushed around' and is aware of the need to improve polling.
Several ministers warned of the danger of unintended consequences. 'Those of us who are sane don’t really want a leadership contest or a timetable for Keir’s departure that undermines the party’s position, but we recognise that when the mood is febrile things can kick off,' one said. 'We wouldn’t be thanked for picking our own leader three years out from the next election. It’s not that things are perfect, it’s just that it’s premature.'
Potential Candidates and Party Dynamics
Neither Rayner, the former deputy PM, nor Streeting, the health secretary, are thought likely to move first. Allies suggest they would only enter a contest if triggered by someone else. Rayner also still has to resolve her tax affairs. Members of Labour’s national executive committee, which blocked Burnham from standing in a by-election in February, do not believe there is a route for him back to parliament, despite weekend reports. Ed Miliband, the climate secretary, is said by colleagues to be more likely to act as kingmaker for Burnham rather than seek the top job himself. One friend said he was determined to prevent Streeting from becoming leader.
Downing Street has made clear that Starmer would fight any attempt to oust him, with allies warning that putative rivals should consider the instability any challenge would cause, particularly amid conflict and difficult economic headwinds. They also played down the prospect of a reshuffle, suggesting Starmer would only undertake one if ministers resigned after the election results and he had to fill gaps.
Writing in the Observer, Starmer said: 'We have a choice. We could sink into the politics of grievance and division. Or we could rise to this moment – together – in a national effort that matches the scale of the threats and turbulence we face. When the nation rallied together to deal with Covid, the last government could have channelled that spirit to build a better nation. But instead, they descended into political infighting and let the country slump back to the old status quo. Not this time.'
