Prime Minister Andy Burnham is taking a high-stakes gamble by acting as if Reform UK does not threaten Labour's hold on power, despite analysis suggesting the insurgent party could capture dozens of its seats.
According to a September analysis by More in Common, Reform is on course to take 95 seats from Labour. Mr Burnham, however, has shown no intention of giving the party the publicity it craves. In his recent conference speech, the six times he mentioned "reform" were in the context of reforming social care, the energy market, Right to Buy, leasehold rules and the electoral system.
Pro-EU Stance and Immigration Policy
Mr Burnham has also spoken publicly about his desire to see Britain return to the EU as a member state. At this month's EU-UK summit in Brussels, he is expected to agree to take rules from the bloc on food standards to avoid customs checks, a move that could be seen as a surrender of sovereignty.
Most notably, Labour has scrapped its plan to make care workers from overseas wait longer to get the right to live in the UK permanently. The measures originally put forward by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood would have allowed the PM to claim he was tackling the future multi-billion pound cost to the taxpayer of the "Boriswave" era of post-Brexit migration.
Electoral Calculations
This signals Mr Burnham is more worried about rebellions in his own ranks than attacks from Reform. It suggests he is increasingly confident that if he kindles goodwill on the wider Left, tactical voting will deny Reform victories and deliver him another term as PM.
Not long ago, there were warnings that then-Mayor of Greater Manchester Mr Burnham would lose to Reform if he stood in a by-election. He won Leave-voting Makerfield by 9,231 votes. Reform has a mighty war chest and devoted footsoldiers, while Mr Burnham presides over an economy beset with inflation. The challenge for Mr Farage is to convince voters they cannot take the risk of giving Labour another term.
