Andy Burnham has been cleared to stand in the upcoming by-election in Makerfield, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. The Labour National Executive Committee approved his candidacy after previously blocking him in February's Gorton and Denton by-election. Josh Simons has announced he will quit Parliament to make way for the Greater Manchester mayor.
Burnham awaits confirmation as Labour's official candidate, but faces a tough contest against Reform UK. Makerfield has been a Labour safe seat since 1983, but Josh Simons won the 2024 general election by just 5,399 votes over Reform. Since then, Labour's polling has collapsed while Reform's has surged. In this month's local elections, Reform won every ward in the constituency with around half the vote, while Labour secured just over a quarter.
Former health secretary Wes Streeting backed Burnham as Labour's 'best chance' of winning. A Survation forecast gives Labour a 67 per cent chance of winning with Burnham as candidate, compared to 0 per cent without. YouGov ranks Burnham as the UK's most popular politician, with 35 per cent positive opinion, against Starmer's 19 per cent and Streeting's 12 per cent.
Pollster Sir John Curtice said Burnham's personality can attract attention and make local politics more connected. He noted Burnham's strong mayoral election performances. However, rising support for the Green Party could split the progressive vote. The Greens won Gorton and Denton with 41 per cent, but Survation polling suggests Burnham would have taken 47 per cent there.
Curtice said Labour would have 'less than 5 per cent chance' in Makerfield if it were anyone other than Burnham, calling it one of the tightest Labour-Reform contests. Simons acknowledged the by-election would be a 'really tough fight' and that he did not know the result. A victory for Burnham would also trigger a by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
