Andy Burnham has been cleared to stand in the upcoming by-election in Makerfield, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. The Manchester mayor secured approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on Friday, after being previously blocked from running in February’s by-election in Gorton and Denton. The decision followed Josh Simons’ announcement that he would quit Parliament to allow Burnham to contest his seat.
Burnham awaits confirmation as Labour’s official candidate, with reports widely indicating success. However, one major hurdle remains: winning the by-election against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Makerfield, a Labour safe seat since its creation in 1983, was won by Simons with a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK at the 2024 general election. Since then, Labour’s polling has collapsed while Reform’s has surged.
This month’s local elections saw Reform win every council ward in the constituency, securing around half the vote, while Labour trailed with little more than a quarter. Former health secretary Wes Streeting has backed Burnham as Labour’s “best chance” of winning, despite allies insisting Streeting will also join any leadership contest.
A recent Survation forecast supports this assessment, giving Labour a 67 per cent chance of winning the seat with Burnham as candidate, compared to 0 per cent without. Burnham is the UK’s most popular politician according to YouGov, with 35 per cent positive opinion, versus Starmer’s 19 per cent and Streeting’s 12 per cent. Public support is even more pronounced in the northwest, where many approve of his record as mayor since 2017.
Pollster Sir John Curtice told The Independent: “You have a personality who can attract attention, make local politics seem much more connected with voters, and who is able to provide a sense of strategic direction. His performances in the mayoral elections go beyond what you would expect.”
Another obstacle is the rise of the Green Party, which saw the second-highest vote share in recent local elections and an historic victory in Gorton and Denton earlier this year. The Greens have said a search for a candidate in Makerfield is underway, dampening hopes that they might step aside to avoid splitting the progressive vote. In Gorton and Denton, the Greens won 41 per cent, Reform 29 per cent, and Labour 25 per cent. However, a Survation poll found that if Burnham had been Labour’s candidate, Labour would have taken 47 per cent, leaving the Greens on 25 per cent.
Sir John said Labour would have a “less than 5 per cent chance” in Makerfield “if it were anyone other than Andy Burnham”. He described it as one of the tightest Labour-Reform contests and “much tougher” than Gorton and Denton.
One factor that could work against Burnham is the perception that he is using the seat as a springboard to the top job. This is difficult to estimate, but a clearer picture will emerge in the months ahead. Speaking to BBC Manchester, Simons acknowledged the contest would be “a really, really, really tough fight”, adding: “Sometimes in history, when people take risks… that’s what changes the story.”
The election could also prove expensive. A by-election in Makerfield alone could cost up to £226,000, while a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester would run into millions—the 2024 mayoral race cost £4.7 million. Sir John reflected: “There will certainly be lots of unhappy Labour voters in Makerfield. Whether he can make a pitch that says 'you're really true red Labour'… He'll be the first candidate trying to win a by-election on the basis that he wishes to replace the leader of the party he's standing for.”
