Andy Burnham has been cleared by Labour’s National Executive Committee to stand in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, positioning him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership. Josh Simons announced he would quit Parliament to make way for the Greater Manchester mayor, who is widely expected to be confirmed as Labour’s official candidate.
Polling data suggests Burnham may be Labour’s only hope of retaining the seat, which has been held by the party since 1983. At the 2024 general election, Simons won with a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK. Since then, Labour’s support has fallen while Reform’s has surged. In this month’s local elections, Reform won every council ward in the constituency, securing around half the vote, with Labour on little more than a quarter.
A forecast by Survation gives Labour a 67 per cent chance of winning with Burnham as candidate, compared to zero per cent without him. Pollster Sir John Curtice told The Independent that Labour would have a “less than 5 per cent chance” if anyone else stood, describing it as one of the tightest Labour-Reform contests. Former health secretary Wes Streeting backed Burnham as Labour’s “best chance”.
Burnham is the UK’s most popular politician, with 35 per cent of people holding a positive opinion, according to YouGov. This contrasts with Sir Keir Starmer’s 19 per cent and Mr Streeting’s 12 per cent. Support is thought to be even stronger in the North West, where Burnham has served as mayor since 2017.
However, the Greens are also fielding a candidate, having won the neighbouring Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year with 41 per cent of the vote. A Survation poll found that if Burnham had been Labour’s candidate there, Labour would have taken 47 per cent. The Greens are already searching for a candidate in Makerfield, which could split the progressive vote in Reform’s favour.
Mr Simons acknowledged the contest would be “a really, really, really tough fight”, adding that he did not know the outcome. A victory for Burnham would also trigger a by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, adding to the political stakes.
