The Labour party appears to have inhabited three parallel worlds over the past fortnight, according to analysis by deputy political editor Jessica Elgot. There is a prime minister celebrating good news on the economy and lower migration figures, insisting he will fight the next election, but with his party intent on deposing him. There is a byelection where Andy Burnham, the party's leftwing hope for prime minister, must demonstrate he can win over Reform UK voters on migration and the bond markets on fiscal rules. And there is the golden boy of the party's right, Wes Streeting, unable to secure enough support to mount a challenge but merrily carrying on a campaign to win members' hearts with ideas including a decidedly leftwing plan for higher wealth taxes.
Burnham's Shift on Immigration
Burnham, who criticised the government as being too 'in hock' to bond markets, knows he must demonstrate economic credibility, especially if he wants a stable basis for his big plans on devolution and stronger public controls on utilities. He cannot fight in Makerfield as 'open-borders Burnham', as his Reform UK opponents have called him, which is why questions on the EU and on easing Shabana Mahmood's changes to the immigration system must be closed down quickly. However, this will sting for progressive Labour voters who had hoped to see a bigger change of direction.
Streeting's Leftward Turn
For Streeting, there is a chance yet of a leadership contest, and one in which, without a change of course, he may end up with a vote share like Liz Kendall's 4.5% in the 2015 race. Consequently, he has over the past six months made his views far more explicit on key issues on the party's left. He called for the recognition of a Palestinian state far sooner than his cabinet colleagues and made a vigorous push in condemning Farage and far-right racism when the prime minister seemed criminally slow in doing so. Now freed from the shackles of cabinet collective responsibility, Streeting has condemned the scapegoating of migrants and issued the first detailed policy of his leadership campaign: a wealth tax centred on capital gains.
Authenticity or Electoral Bind?
It would be unfair to say that either Burnham or Streeting is being inauthentic. They are both human beings and members of the same party, neither actually what their public caricature suggests. Burnham has been a business-friendly mayor of Manchester who has overseen the fastest economic growth in the country. He is not a bloodthirsty communist out to destroy the City of London, nor has he ever been a vocal supporter of more open borders. Streeting has been a longtime campaigner against racism and the far-right, including on Gaza, and was one of the most vociferous anti-Brexit voices. These are not convenient Damascene conversions.
But Streeting's left turn and Burnham's right turn are a symptom of the electoral bind that the Labour party finds itself in. Labour lost almost four times as many voters to the Greens than to Reform UK in the local elections, according to YouGov. Those votes are piling up in cities with big Labour majorities that might go Green for the first time. Across the country, there are hundreds of seats with the tightest of margins that could fall to Reform with just a small number of switchers. No ambitious Labour leader or prime minister can afford to look in just one direction.
