As President Donald Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union address this evening, an online prediction market is placing big bets on the topics he will mention. According to Kalshi, a popular platform for wagering on political events, there is a better-than-not chance that Trump will bring up aliens, artificial intelligence, and hockey during his speech to Congress.
High-Probability Phrases in the Spotlight
With trading volume exceeding $10 million ahead of the Capitol Hill speech, Kalshi has released detailed odds on specific phrases. The site forecasts a 96 percent likelihood that Trump will mention "250," a reference to the nation's 250th anniversary this year. This is closely followed by 95 percent odds for "Trillion" and 92 percent for "AI / Artificial Intelligence."
Sports and Extraterrestrial Interests
There is also a 92 percent chance the Republican president will talk about "Olympics / World Cup" and a 90 percent chance he will touch on "hockey." This comes after the U.S. Men's Hockey team won the gold medal at the Olympics in Milan this weekend, and the team has received an invitation to attend the address tonight.
The word "Alien" has an 87 percent chance of being uttered, likely due to heightened interest since Trump ordered the government to begin releasing files related to "alien and extraterrestrial life" last week.
Lower Odds and Political References
On the other hand, phrases like "Drill Baby Drill," "Sleepy Joe," and "Trump Derangement Syndrome" have less than a 50 percent chance of being mentioned, according to the prediction market.
People and Places on the Radar
Some wagers have been placed on the individuals and locations the 79-year-old president will name. Kalshi sees a 92 percent chance that Trump will mention former President Joe Biden and an 87 percent chance for deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, whom U.S. forces captured last month. Odds are even higher he will refer to Iran (95 percent), Venezuela (94 percent), and China (93 percent).
Address Details and Political Context
Trump's State of the Union address is scheduled to begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. The president is expected to use the address to highlight his immigration crackdown, his military operations around the world, and his handling of the economy during his whirlwind first year in office, according to The Associated Press.
Attendees traditionally include most members of Congress, Cabinet secretaries, and Supreme Court justices. However, more than two dozen Democrats are planning to ditch the event to hold their own rally in protest. It remains to be seen whether all Supreme Court justices will attend after they struck down the president's sweeping tariffs last week, leading Trump to describe the justices who opposed him as "fools and lapdogs."
The high-stakes betting activity underscores the intense public and political interest in Trump's speech, with millions of dollars wagered on everything from policy mentions to personal jabs, reflecting the unpredictable nature of his presidency.
