Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is considered a frontrunner to replace Sir Keir Starmer if the Prime Minister resigns. However, as a mayor without a parliamentary seat, his path to becoming the UK's next prime minister is fraught with challenges. Here is a step-by-step breakdown of what would be required.
Securing a Vacant Parliamentary Seat
The first hurdle for Mr Burnham is finding a vacant seat in the House of Commons. This is not straightforward. In November last year, Clive Lewis, Labour MP for Norwich South, indicated he would step down for Mr Burnham, but later clarified that Mr Burnham did not want a Norfolk seat. Similarly, Paula Barker, Labour MP for Liverpool, and Marie Rimmer, Labour MP for St Helens South and Whiston, have ruled out standing down for him. Two by-elections are upcoming in Scotland, but Mr Burnham is unlikely to contest these. Labour grandee Baroness Harriet Harman has suggested he should be brought into the Cabinet, but this does not provide a seat.
Approval from Labour's National Executive Committee
If a seat becomes available, Mr Burnham would need the approval of Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC), which selects candidates. In January, the NEC blocked him from running in Gorton and Denton, a Greater Manchester by-election. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer justified the move, citing resource concerns. Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell, who supported Mr Burnham, noted he would likely have won the seat.
Election to Parliament
Only after being elected as an MP can Mr Burnham enter a Labour leadership contest. Labour Party rules require candidates to be MPs, as the leader becomes prime minister. To qualify, he would need nominations from 20% of Labour MPs and either 5% of constituency Labour Parties or three affiliates, including at least two trade unions.
Winning the Leadership
Finally, Mr Burnham would need to win the leadership competition to become Labour leader and prime minister. This process is competitive, and he would need to secure broad support within the party.
Summary of Necessary Steps
- Vacant parliamentary seat
- NEC permission to stand
- Win by-election, become an MP
- Meet nomination thresholds (20% of MPs, 5% of CLPs or three affiliates)
- Win leadership contest, become Labour leader and prime minister
The mayoral election in 2024 cost over £4.7 million, highlighting the financial implications. Mr Burnham's journey to Downing Street would be complex and uncertain, but his supporters argue he could bring a fresh perspective to national leadership.
