Following his landslide victory in the Makerfield by-election, Andy Burnham's chances of becoming prime minister have dramatically improved. The Labour MP now faces a series of scenarios that could see him replace Keir Starmer at the helm of the party and the country.
The first step would be for Starmer to resign or be forced out, potentially after a poor performance in local elections or a failed confidence vote. Burnham would then need to declare his candidacy in the ensuing leadership contest.
A key variable is whether he faces a strong rival like Wes Streeting. If Burnham secures enough nominations from Labour MPs, he could proceed to a ballot of party members, where his popularity among the grassroots would be a significant advantage.
Should Burnham win the leadership, he would become Leader of the Opposition. The final step to becoming prime minister would require a general election, which could be triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government or by the prime minister calling an early election.
Timing is uncertain, but if events unfold swiftly, Burnham could potentially enter Downing Street within months. However, much depends on Starmer's willingness to step aside and the political landscape at the time.
