It is becoming increasingly difficult for officials in the Kremlin to portray the war in Ukraine—now in its fifth year—as a distant conflict that does not affect the daily lives of Russian civilians. From irritating internet disruptions to this month’s scaled-down Victory Day parade and a massive weekend aerial attack in the Moscow region that killed three people, Russia’s full-scale war no longer seems remote.
Zelensky calls attack just retribution
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky framed the attack on Moscow’s suburbs as just retribution for the relentless and deadly Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other cities the previous week. These assaults came just days after President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump both suggested that the war in Ukraine was nearing its end.
One of the biggest Ukrainian attacks
The Russian Defence Ministry reported on Sunday that its air defences had downed 1,054 Ukrainian drones in the previous 24 hours, one of the highest tallies recorded by the military. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 81 drones were shot down by the capital’s air defences from late Saturday to early Sunday. The attacks killed three people near the Russian capital, injured 12 others, damaged multiple apartment buildings, and destroyed several private homes.
One drone struck the territory of a Moscow refinery but did not disrupt production, Mr Sobyanin said. Another hit an oil tank at a storage facility, sparking a blaze that blanketed the area in black smoke. Several Moscow airports suspended operations, causing dozens of flights to be delayed or diverted. One Ukrainian drone landed on the grounds of Sheremetyevo airport but caused no damage, authorities reported.
Ukraine's growing drone arsenal
Ukraine’s ability to penetrate Moscow’s dense air defence cover reflects the growth in its drone numbers and enhanced tactics. Kyiv has steadily increased its drone raids, focusing on energy facilities and arms factories, but the capital has presented a tougher target. “The Moscow region is the most heavily saturated with Russian air defence systems,” Mr Zelensky said in a national address, adding that “our long-range capabilities are significantly changing the situation—and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war.” He described the weekend attack on Moscow as a justified response to “Russia’s prolongation of the war and attacks on our cities and communities.” In a social media post, he stated, “We are clearly telling the Russians: Their state must end its war.”
The deadliest attack last week in Ukraine saw 24 people killed when a Russian missile levelled a nine-story apartment building in Kyiv.
A scaled-back Victory Day
The attacks followed a brief US-brokered three-day ceasefire that failed to end the fighting but led to a pause in long-range attacks, allowing Moscow to hold its annual 9 May military parade commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Concern over Ukraine’s longer-range drone attacks prompted Russian authorities to scale down the parade. Unlike in previous years, no tanks, missiles, or other hardware rumbled through Red Square.
After the parade, Mr Putin said the war in Ukraine was nearing its end, though he did not elaborate or offer a timetable. He has insisted on maximalist demands for ending the war, including that Ukraine must withdraw its troops from four regions that Moscow has annexed but never fully captured. Kyiv has rejected this demand. Mr Trump also claimed last week that the end of the war was “getting very close,” even though US efforts to broker a resolution have made no significant progress and are effectively on hold since the start of the war in Iran.
Growing domestic discontent in Russia
The Moscow attacks come at a time of rising tensions in Russia over the growing cost of the war and increasingly restrictive government policies that have dented Putin’s traditionally high popularity. Some military bloggers and social media influencers who were once loyal to the Kremlin have begun openly questioning government policies.
A move by authorities to restrict cellphone internet and block popular messaging apps has caused massive losses to businesses and disrupted daily life for millions of Russians, triggering public outrage. The government defended the action by citing the need to thwart attacks by Ukrainian drones, some of which rely on mobile internet for targeting. Critics denounce the shutdowns as the latest move by authorities to tighten control over the internet. Growing frustration over the restrictions has led to petitions to the presidential administration and attempts to organise protests, which were quickly blocked.
As tensions mount, Mr Putin on Tuesday begins a two-day visit to China.
Controlling the message and threatening retaliation
State TV stations sought to downplay the Moscow attacks, which received only brief mention on some newscasts. They focused instead on a successful test last week of a new intercontinental ballistic missile intended to be a key part of Russia’s nuclear forces. Several war bloggers said the weekend attack exposed vulnerabilities in air defences that must be fixed quickly. Some urged the Kremlin to ramp up attacks on Ukraine and target its government.
“The time has come to hit the decision-making centres,” wrote Alexander Kots of the daily Komsomolskaya Pravda. Pro-Kremlin political commentator Sergei Markov wrote that he woke up to the sound of explosions over the weekend as air defences fired on attacking drones. He blamed Kyiv’s allies for helping Ukraine boost its drone output, alleging “it was Europe that tried to hit Moscow.” “As long as Europe believes it’s safe, such attempts will continue,” Mr Markov said.
Russian hawks have long urged the Kremlin to respond to growing Ukrainian attacks by striking Kyiv’s allies in Europe. Last month, the Defence Ministry published a list of European factories it said were involved in producing drones and components for Ukraine. It warned that attacks on Russia involving drones manufactured in Europe are fraught with “unpredictable consequences.” When asked by a state TV commentator why Moscow tolerates being “bitten” like that, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded that its nuclear deterrent is intended to fend off threats to Russia’s existence.
