Recent photographs of Vladimir Putin, 73, looking pale and gaunt have intensified speculation about his health. As concerns grow, analysts are focusing on the lack of a clear succession plan in Russia, a situation that could lead to chaos.
Expert Warns of Unpreparedness
Dr. Julian G. Waller, a research scientist in Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, writing in Foreign Affairs, highlights that the regime has no plan for what happens after Putin leaves office. He notes that Putin has built a system that avoids preparing for the inevitable, leaving the country unprepared.
Possible Scenarios
Waller outlines several possibilities: a rushed handover, a chaotic power struggle among elites, or continued decay under the current gerontocracy. He emphasizes that the outcome is unclear.
No Clear Successor
While Russia's constitution names Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin as temporary leader, Waller points out that Mishustin lacks his own loyal network, making it difficult for him to secure permanent power. Real power would likely fall to a group of Putin's oldest allies, including spy chief Alexander Bortnikov, National Guard boss Viktor Zolotov, Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu, and General Valery Gerasimov.
Bottleneck and Risk
Putin's blocking of younger officials has created a bottleneck, leaving ambitious subordinates sidelined. Waller warns this could lead to a scramble for power, potentially resulting in dangerous missteps during a leadership transition.
