Norwegian officials are investigating a surge in online bets placed for this year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, raising concerns of a potential leak from the secretive awarding committee. Bets for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado spiked on the Polymarket gambling site shortly after midnight Norwegian time on Thursday, hours before she was announced as the laureate.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, told Bloomberg: 'It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.' Machado was awarded the prize for her democratic activism in authoritarian Venezuela, becoming the first Venezuelan to receive the honour. She was informed of her win at 10:50 Norwegian time.
The betting anomaly was first reported by Norwegian newspapers Aftenposten and Finansavisen. Until Thursday, Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, led the odds on Polymarket. Shortly after midnight, Machado's odds stood at 3.75%, trailing both Navalnaya and Donald Trump. Within two hours, they surged to 72.8%, indicating a flurry of bets on her victory.
In one instance, a user won more than US$65,000 by betting on Machado, while another winner's profile was created on the same day the bet was placed, according to Finansavisen. Jørgen Watne Frydnes, head of the Nobel committee, emphasised the group's strong record of secrecy over the past half-century. Harpviken told Aftenposten it was 'too early to be certain' if a leak had occurred, but confirmed an investigation would be launched.
