The authors who coined the term "Millennials" have resurfaced online over claims their 1997 book predicts a dramatic turning point in 2026. William Strauss and Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning argues that American history moves in repeating cycles lasting around 80 years, each ending in a period of intense upheaval described as a "Crisis". The book has gained fresh attention as online discussions highlight its suggested timeline for the current cycle, which supporters say points towards a significant phase around the mid-2020s.
Generational theory and the four turnings
Through coining the term "Millennials", Strauss and Howe's work on generational theory has become widely known. The term is now used to describe those born from the early 1980s onwards. At the centre of their theory is the idea that history progresses through four recurring stages: a High, an Awakening, an Unravelling and a Crisis. The authors suggested that previous cycles in American history culminated in major national turning points including the American Revolution, the Civil War and the Second World War, according to the Daily Mail.
Timeline for the current crisis
Their work proposed that a crisis phase beginning in the mid-2000s would build towards a climax around 2020, followed by a resolution phase emerging roughly six years later. Strauss and Howe wrote: "If the Crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026. What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no guarantees." They also warned that such periods of upheaval could carry severe consequences for nations, adding: "It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – and perhaps even our nation – might never recover."
Alignment with recent events
While the book does not specifically predict events such as 9/11, the 2008 financial crash or the Covid-19 pandemic, supporters argue those events appear to align with its broader framework. Critics, however, say the theory is too flexible, arguing that major historical events can be retrofitted to fit its cycle model after the fact. The authors also warned that crisis periods in history have often involved war, disease, political instability or economic collapse. Strauss and Howe wrote: "As many Americans know from their own ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or beaten so badly they revert to barbarism."
Updated predictions and renewal
Following Strauss's death in 2007, Howe revisited and expanded the theory in his 2023 book The Fourth Turning Is Here, suggesting the current era of instability may extend further into the 2030s. Despite the bleak warnings, Howe has argued the theory ultimately suggests a cycle of renewal, in which periods of crisis are eventually followed by reconstruction and renewed social cohesion.
