The 2026 FIFA World Cup is poised to become one of the largest gambling events in history, with Americans expected to wager more than $3 billion, potentially overtaking Super Bowl betting totals.
Record-breaking betting forecast
The quadrennial tournament, which kicks off on June 11 across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is projected to generate approximately $3.1 billion in legal online sports bets from U.S. bettors alone, according to a new forecast from Bookies.com. Additionally, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to contribute another $2.4 billion in World Cup wagering, reflecting a broadening of betting activity beyond traditional sportsbooks.
This surge builds on already record-setting momentum in U.S. sports gambling. Americans legally wagered about $1.8 billion on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, a figure nearly on par with Super Bowl betting levels at the time. Analysts attribute the rapid growth to several factors: the expansion of legalized mobile sports betting across more states, the tournament’s expanded 48-team format—which creates more matches to bet on—and rising mainstream interest in soccer among U.S. fans, who increasingly treat it as a major betting sport.
Prediction markets gain traction
“Prediction markets have been around for a long time, but they didn't start taking sports trades until last year,” Bill Speros, sports betting analyst for Bookies.com, told CBS News. “So you're going to see Kalshi and Polymarket probably do a significant number on this.”
A PwC survey found that 58 percent of Americans plan to place a wager on the tournament through sportsbooks, prediction markets, fantasy contests, or informal bets with friends and family. Among those bettors, about one in three expect to wager at least $250, according to the survey, which polled more than 2,000 adults in April.
Expanded tournament fuels betting surge
The massive scale of this year’s World Cup contributes to the betting surge. The tournament has expanded for the first time to 48 teams, up from 32 in 2022, and now includes a total of 104 matches.
In terms of odds, France and Spain are the top betting favorites to win the World Cup, with odds around +450 to +500, according to DraftKings. Close behind are England (+650) and Brazil (+800), followed by reigning champion Argentina (+900). These teams are seen as strong but slightly less likely title winners.
Team USA odds
Team USA is considered a long shot overall, with odds around +6,000 to +8,000 to win the tournament—implying about a 1 percent chance. However, sportsbooks expect the U.S. to perform well in the early rounds. They are favored to win their group at +130 and strongly expected to advance to the knockout stage at -575 against Turkey (+1,000), Paraguay (+1,000), and Australia (+60,000).
