The 2026 US midterm elections on 3 November will determine whether Republicans keep control of Congress or Democrats regain a majority. Many voter sentiment indicators suggest Democrats are favored to take back the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate. Winning either chamber would give Democrats the power to block President Donald Trump's legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration.
Senate battleground narrows to a handful of states
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Thirty-five seats are on the ballot this November, as senators serve six-year terms with a third facing voters every two years. Democrats must win at least four Republican-held seats to gain a majority.
The Cook Political Report, a prominent US election forecaster, lists seven seats as tossups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. North Carolina and Kansas are leaning Democrat and Republican respectively.
Texas and Michigan emerge as key pickup opportunities
Texas, a longstanding Republican stronghold, is considered in play this year. Recent polls show Democratic candidate James Talarico, a state representative, ahead by a razor-thin margin. Talarico has focused on wealth inequality and called for billionaires to pay higher taxes, with the campaign slogan "It's time to start flipping tables." His opponent, state attorney general Ken Paxton, has highlighted his close relationship with Trump, who endorsed him in a video praising his work "defend[ing] our southern border from the Obama and Biden invasions." No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
In Michigan, a tossup seat currently held by a retiring Democrat, progressive Abdul El-Sayed is polling slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed, a former public health official endorsed by figures like Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, has campaigned on Medicare for All. Polling suggests close to half of Michigan voters support the idea, with 40.2% opposed and 10.6% neutral or undecided.
Iowa and House races test Democratic reach
Iowa, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 2008, shows a tight race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball. Hinson has championed year-round sale of gasoline with higher biofuel concentration to appeal to the state's agricultural base. Iowa's rural voter share is 64%, compared to a 33% average in states with Democratic senators.
For the House, all 435 seats are up for election. Nine states have redrawn congressional boundaries after Trump set off a redistricting war, with analysis suggesting Republicans will gain more seats overall. The Cook Report rates more than 40 races as competitive, and winning around half would hand Democrats a majority. Key House races include New York's 17th district, Ohio's 9th, and California's 22nd, where the One Big Beautiful Bill and Medicaid cuts are major issues.
National polling favors Democrats
Recent surveys of the generic ballot give Democrats an edge ranging from high single digits to low double digits. The Iran war and its impact on inflation have shifted the race, with Democratic candidates campaigning on affordability. Trump's approval rating has fallen to 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, worse than his previous low of 34% recorded by Gallup after the January 6 attack. The question is whether voter punishment will lead him to change course.
