Kemi Badenoch has woken up with renewed optimism this morning after overnight local election results suggested the Conservative Party is beginning a long-awaited recovery following the 2024 general election defeat. While the Tories have lost dozens of council seats across the country, crucial battlegrounds in London have delivered surprisingly positive outcomes for the party.
Unexpected victories in key London councils
Ms Badenoch's team has bucked the trend against recent polls, all of which indicated the Conservatives were unlikely to win in major councils such as Wandsworth and Westminster. However, this morning, residents in both affluent areas are waking up to Conservative-run councils for the first time since 2022.
In Westminster, which encompasses prominent areas such as the Houses of Parliament, the West End, and Belgravia, the Tories secured 32 seats compared to Labour's 22. The party had governed the council since its creation in 1965, before losing it in a wave of anti-Boris Johnson sentiment four years ago.
Tory sources expressed particular satisfaction at defeating two high-profile defectors standing for election in Abbey Wood: Alan Mendoza, a prominent think tanker from the Henry Jackson Society, and former MP Damien Moore. A source told the Mail: 'Bye-bye failed Tories'.
Wandsworth returns to Conservative control
South of the river in Wandsworth, once known as 'Thatcher's favourite council' for its historically low council tax, the Tories also succeeded in reclaiming power from Labour. Having lost control in 2022, the Conservatives this morning took 29 seats to Labour's 28. One independent councillor was also elected, with the Tories claiming reassurances from Malcolm Grimston that he will not prevent them from running the area.
Bexley and Harlow hold off Reform UK
Ms Badenoch also fended off a significant challenge from Reform UK in Bexley, southeast London. The Tories retained control of Bexley despite a recent MRP poll suggesting they were neck-and-neck with Nigel Farage's party. While some seats are still to be declared, the Conservatives hold enough seats to control the council, and Reform has only a single-figure number of councillors elected.
Similarly, in Harlow, the Tories were defending six of the 11 seats up for election. The Tory leader of the council, Dan Swords, said: 'Reform said they would win all 11. The Conservatives won all 11 - with record turnout and majorities. Phenomenal.'
Reform UK makes gains elsewhere
Reform UK did put on a strong showing in outer London, while failing to secure Bexley. The party won its first-ever London council seat in Havering this morning, taking at least 28 of the council's 55 available seats. Mr Farage hailed it as an 'historic shift in British politics'. Meanwhile, his colleague Robert Jenrick said this morning that both the Tories and Labour 'have been completely buried'.
Tory sources see signs of recovery
Speaking to the Mail this morning, a source close to Kemi Badenoch said that while there are still 'really difficult places yet to come in', the results overnight prove that the Tories are 'coming back'. They explained: 'There's a lot of the really difficult places yet to come in, so we're not counting our chickens. But YouGov and More in Common didn't have us taking Wandsworth and Westminster. They had us losing out in Bexley - where we've not only held on but increased some of our majorities. There's a real sign we're coming back in places. These are tough elections for us. But we're coming back from our historic lows.'
According to the Tories, they believe their overall vote share this year will be around 18%, a rise of six points since the last set of local elections. Asked if there is a risk the Tories may become a right-wing party only present in the capital, while losing the rest of their footing to Reform UK, the top source added: 'We're obviously fighting across the country. The fact is these were - for the most part - the urban north and midlands, which has traditionally been more Labour dominated. But in more rural parts of the North we have shown we can hang on.' They reiterated denials that Ms Badenoch would now be planning a reshuffle of her shadow cabinet, insisting that the Tory leader is 'very happy with her team' and the U-turns they have been securing from the Government in Westminster.
