The Stafford byelection in northern Brisbane is anticipated to swing towards the ruling Liberal National Party (LNP) in a result that political experts warn could be fatal to former premier Steven Miles' leadership of Queensland Labor. Voters went to the polls following the sudden death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April.
If Labor loses the seat, it would mark the first time in 50 years that a state party in opposition has lost a byelection to the government, intensifying pressure on Miles. Sullivan, who faced a 6.83% swing against him in the 2024 election, was expelled from Labor in May 2025 over legal and medical concerns after taking a months-long leave of absence and facing repeated personal attacks from the government in parliament.
Stafford, a historically working-class suburb, has been almost continuously held by Labor since 1989, with Sullivan's father, Terry Sullivan, representing it from 2001 to 2006. With a margin of 5.3%, it was the 12th-closest Labor seat at the 2024 election and is considered marginal.
The Greens' how-to-vote card did not direct preferences to either Labor or the LNP, unlike in 2024, while One Nation did not field a candidate. Political experts warn the result will have ramifications for David Crisafulli's LNP government, the Labor opposition, and federal politics.
Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams predicted it is increasingly likely that LNP candidate Fiona Hammond will snatch the seat with a projected vote of 51-52% after preferences. Notionally, Labor still holds the seat with a 5.3% two-party preferred margin, but recent polling shows the LNP on track for an unexpected historic victory.
Williams noted that even a reduction in Labor's margin would technically be a loss for Labor and Miles. "If [the LNP] bring it from 55 to 53, that's technically a loss for Labor," he said. "They should be winning this seat with 59-60 and we know that's not going to happen. If they lose the seat, it's huge. To lose a seat in Brisbane for Labor is very consequential."
A loss would likely be terminal to Miles' leadership, with shadow treasurer and minister for women Shannon Fentiman best placed to challenge. Williams criticised One Nation's decision not to stand a candidate, noting that while the party historically struggles in urban seats, recent trends suggested they could have polled between 12% and 20%, which would have almost guaranteed an LNP victory on preferences.
The Greens' decision not to allocate preferences would likely only matter in a very close result. On Friday, Miles stated the byelection was an opportunity for voters to send a message to the Crisafulli government, but insisted the outcome would not change either the government or Labor's leadership.
Meanwhile, Pauline Hanson's chief of staff, James Ashby, defended One Nation's absence, calling it a waste of party resources given the short four-week campaign.
