Australia's major political parties are confronting a significant wave of voter discontent, as a leading Liberal figure acknowledges that flawed policies over the past decade have contributed to the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation. Polling conducted by RedBridge Group and Accent Research indicates that if a federal election were held today, One Nation could secure up to 59 seats in the lower house.
Potential Shift in Political Landscape
Such an outcome would position Senator Hanson's anti-immigration party as the official opposition, reducing the Coalition to a mere handful of seats and compelling Labor to form a minority government. However, RedBridge analyst Alex Fein cautions against a 'reflexive interpretation' that Australia is veering towards the far right. Instead, he points to deteriorating living standards and public services, alongside a collapse of trust in institutions like government, media, and businesses.
Mr Fein explained that the anti-establishment sentiment has created a void, and voting for Senator Hanson is seen as a way to give the major parties a 'kick up the bum'. Opposition housing spokesman Andrew Bragg echoed this sentiment, stating that voters are seeking an 'economic revolution'. He told Sky News that the Coalition has not performed well on economic policy over the last decade, noting a need for more action on tax, industrial relations, superannuation, and budget matters.
Coalition Under Pressure
Bragg admitted, 'We're being punished.' The RedBridge central prediction suggests One Nation would take 53 seats, reducing the Coalition to just 12 and Labor to a slender majority of 76. Labor cabinet secretary Andrew Charlton emphasized the government's focus on addressing voter concerns, stating that One Nation expresses grievances but fails to provide real solutions.
Alarm is rising within the Coalition, particularly among Nationals facing strong challenges in regional areas. Former Nationals leader David Littleproud dismissed the poll as 'a little courageous', suggesting it is more about clickbait than reality. However, One Nation's recent by-election win in the regional NSW seat of Farrer underscores its growing influence.
The poll predicts the independent crossbench would shrink from 10 to eight seats. Independent senator David Pocock did not rule out forming a political party with like-minded representatives, emphasizing the need for candidates who prioritize people over vested interests.
Voter Drift Towards One Nation
A separate poll by DemosAU for Capital Brief reveals a significant shift of support towards One Nation, especially among Coalition voters. Nearly 40 per cent of those who backed the Coalition in 2025 would switch to One Nation if an election were held now. Labor is also losing ground, with 17 per cent of its 2025 voters moving towards Hanson's party. The Coalition's ability to attract Labor voters is limited, with only 7 per cent considering a switch.
These findings highlight the deep-seated grievances within the Australian electorate, posing a serious challenge to the established political order.
