The Conservatives are now one percentage point ahead of Reform UK in the battle for Right-wing voters, according to new analysis from More in Common. The research shows the Tories on 24% compared with Reform's 23%, as both parties aim to oust Andy Burnham's Labour at the next election.
The findings reveal a tight contest in which each party leads among different demographic groups. The Conservatives have stronger support among women, graduates and the over-75s, while Reform performs better with men, non-graduates and Generation X, defined as those born between 1965 and 1980.
Voter Loyalty and Swings
The research indicates that 40% of Reform voters would back the Conservatives in a straight Labour-Conservative contest. By contrast, only one in four Conservatives would swing behind Nigel Farage's party in a Labour-Reform battle, and 19% of Conservatives would vote Labour.
Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: "Reform and the Conservatives are now locked in a tight, high-stakes duel to position themselves as the main opposition to Labour." He said a small 2% swing from Reform to the Conservatives would result in the Tories winning 202 seats, leaving them the "clear opposition to Labour". However, a 2% swing from Conservative to Reform would lead to Mr Farage's party winning 213 constituencies.
Reform's Decline and the Pincer Movement
Mr Tryl said support for Reform was down nine points from its peak last autumn, driven by the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch winning back many former voters. He added that the rise of Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain has "put them in a pincer movement".
"The next few months could be a make-or-break moment for the battle for the Right," he said. "The Right could begin to unite more strongly behind one party seen as best placed to beat Andy Burnham, or the divisions between Conservatives and Reform could deepen and become a key feature of the next election."
Demographic Divides
More in Common uncovered a "stark gender divide", with Mrs Badenoch's party leading among women, 24% to 19%. Among those who voted Reform in the 2024 election, 74% still back the party but 11% now support Restore. The share of 2024 Conservative voters now backing Reform has fallen from 28% to 17%.
The researchers found age is one of the biggest dividing lines on the Right, with Reform strongest among people in their 50s and 60s while the Conservatives do best with the over-75s. Education is also a crucial dividing line, with the Conservatives the clear choice on the Right for graduates and Reform in fourth place among this group. Reform remains the largest party among non-graduates, but it has fallen eight points with this group since May, driven by Restore.
Barriers for Both Parties
More in Common suggests the Right may be nearing a tipping point because Reform voters are more willing to contemplate voting Conservative to block Labour than the other way round. However, it warns the main hurdle the Conservatives face is a sense that they do not understand ordinary people or represent their values.
For Reform, a lack of trust, especially in Nigel Farage himself, has become a larger barrier. Among Reform voters considering voting Tory, they are held back by the Conservatives' record on immigration (45%) and Brexit (26%), as well as the suspicion that the party cannot win where they live (21%). Conservative voters thinking of voting Reform are held back by the party's lack of experience in government (25%), a worry that its economic plans are not credible (19%), and Mr Farage's support for President Trump (16%).
A Conservative source said: "It is becoming increasingly clear that the choice at the next election will be between Conservative plans to get Britain working again and a Labour Party that keeps putting up taxes, refuses to cut welfare and will not fund our defence." Reform UK declined to comment.
