A new YouGov poll suggests Andy Burnham has a clear lead over all other main UK party leaders on the question of who would make the best prime minister. The figures also indicate that support for Nigel Farage is falling.
Polling Details
Earlier in the year, Farage was ahead of Kemi Badenoch on this measure, but she now beats him by more than two to one. Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, and Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, have both seen their ratings fall since the start of this year, but in a head-to-head contest they both beat Farage, who is the most disliked of all the main party leaders.
Anti-Farage Effect
In his write-up for YouGov, Dylan Difford provided more detail on how the anti-Farage effect works. He said: “While just over half of Lib Dem and Green voters (52-53%) think Burnham would be a more capable PM than Badenoch (with 21% of Lib Dems instead backing Badenoch), this rises as much as 25 points (71-77%) when Burnham’s opponent is Farage. Likewise, while Reform UK voters feel Badenoch would make a better PM than Burnham by a decisive margin of 52% to 6%, just 38% of Conservative voters see Farage as potentially being a better PM than Burnham, with 24% instead feeling the former Manchester mayor is more up to the job. Additionally, when the scenario includes two leaders from the same bloc, significant proportions of voters are willing to ‘cross the floor’ to back the more centrist contender. For example, 61% of 2024 Lib Dems, alongside 44-45% of Labour and Green voters, back Badenoch over Farage, while Conservative and Reform UK voters prefer Burnham to Polanski by 41-44% to 2-3%.”
