The triple lock is expected to deliver a 3.9% increase in the state pension in April 2027, based on earnings growth in the three months to July. The September inflation figure came in lower at 3.5%, so the earnings element holds sway.
That should lift the full new state pension by £489.36 a year to £13,036.96. However, around 8 million pensioners on the old basic state pension will receive a much smaller increase in cash terms.
Two state pensions, different increases
People who reached state pension age before April 6, 2016, receive the old basic state pension. Its full rate is currently £9,614.80 a year. A 3.9% increase will add just £374.98, taking it to £9,989.78.
That is £114.38 less than the increase enjoyed by someone receiving the full new state pension. The gap between the two full rates will widen from £2,932.80 to £3,047.18 a year.
Women and additional state pension
Women have particular reason to be concerned. Under the old system, women were more likely to have gaps in their National Insurance (NI) records because of caring responsibilities, lower earnings or time spent working part-time. That could leave them with a smaller basic pension.
Around 6.9 million people on the old system also receive additional state pension built up under schemes including SERPS and the State Second Pension, or S2P. This can mean they receive more overall than the basic rate alone.
Additional pension rises with inflation
For those who receive additional state pension, there is another twist. Unlike the basic and new state pensions, which benefit from the triple lock, the additional element only rises in line with inflation each year. With September inflation at 3.5%, it looks set to increase by that amount in April, rather than 3.9%.
The difference is not enormous in any one year, but these gaps can accumulate over time. And for older pensioners who already feel they have been short-changed, it adds another reason to feel aggrieved.
Triple lock under threat
It also offers a taste of what could happen if Andy Burnham wins the next election and presses ahead with his plan to weaken the triple lock after 2030. He has proposed replacing the automatic earnings link with an alternative system, but has yet to explain exactly how it would work.
The state pension is fiendishly complicated, with different rules, entitlements and wrinkles depending on when you retired and what you paid in. Another triple lock rise may be welcome, but for millions of older pensioners, it may leave a bitter aftertaste.
