The chill in the air is not the weather but the Republicans freaking out about the 2026 midterm elections. Midterms are always referendums on the incumbent, though the party in power usually would rather they weren't. This midterm feels less like a referendum on Trumpism than a dirge.
Republicans were lulled into thinking that Donald Trump could once again defy political gravity. When it became clear he couldn't, Trump tried to federalize elections, mess with mail-in voting, and redraw the map to gain seats in states like Texas. Even Trump at his peak couldn't defy diesel at $6.50 a gallon, and he is no longer the deft faux populist of his first term.
Hyper-Local Inflation
In this political environment, Democrats have about a nine-point advantage, making even redder parts of the country seem in play. The cost-of-living crisis looks different in different places. In Maine, candidate Matt Dunlap told the podcast that voters worried about heating oil prices, as diesel hit a record national average of $6.51 this week, and both use a similar chemical compound. Maine gets cold in October, making heating oil a major expense.
In Texas, candidate Bobby Pulido noted voters in his 15th congressional district worried about beef prices at about $7 per pound, with cattle ranchers unhappy about the administration importing beef from South America.
Bernie-Dogs and Environmental Issues
There are candidates representing both the left and the center, endorsed by both the Blue Dogs and Bernie Sanders. These populist moderates run in purple districts, describing a political atmosphere fueled by voter rage that is not left v right but down v up. Candidates include Pennsylvania's Bob Brooks, Wisconsin's Rebecca Cooke, Montana's Sam Forstag, and Ohio's Brian Poindexter, all involved in unions or union families.
Iowa has two major elections where Democrats are polling ahead, running in an "up v down" framing. The state, which Trump won by 13.2 points in 2024 and 9.4 points in 2016, is in play due to environmental contamination. Iowa has the second highest rate of cancer in the US, with people over 50 having a 10% higher rate than the national average.
Culture Wars and Desperation
Kansas has emerged as a focal point. The Wall Street Journal reported that Republican Senator Roger Marshall was met with boos and jeering at the Kansas state fair Senate debate. He runs against Adam Hamilton, a popular Democrat and mega-church pastor. The Cook Political Report shifted the race from likely Republican to lean Republican, striking for a state Trump won by more than 16 points.
In less than two years, Republicans have gone from bravado to desperately begging for votes. Vance went on a rightwing tech-bro podcast to ask voters to "give us another chance, or give us another couple of years." In Iowa, Vance pleaded, "Rome was not built in a day because we know there's a lot of work to do." Matt Gaetz tweeted: "Bro we need your vote. I hate the war too. But the Democrats want to trans your kids."
The one trend that worries most is voter anger. In 2018, voters rejected Trumpism but weren't as furious. Both parties aren't taking voter anger seriously enough. Voters want to kick out Republicans, but they seem mad that the establishment isn't elevating their concerns. Datacenters and government corruption are issues that 80% of voters support action on. If the establishment fails to address these issues with authenticity and zeal, both parties will have real problems.
