The UK is already fighting a hybrid World War 3, a leading security expert has warned, with Prime Minister Andy Burnham under increasing pressure to raise defence spending despite claims it should reach 3% of GDP by 2030.
Expert warns of hybrid conflict
Spanish security expert and former military officer Ramón Cuerda Riva argues that while a conventional Russian invasion of the EU is highly unlikely, the threat of hybrid warfare is immediate. Writing in Escudo Digital, Riva noted that the war in Ukraine has severely degraded Moscow's forces, stating: “Europe has developed the capacity to wipe out any Russian army that attempted to invade it.”
However, Riva warned that this conventional weakness makes Russia more likely to operate in the grey zone, employing cheaper, harder-to-attribute methods of coercion such as cyber attacks, sabotage, disinformation, and infrastructure disruption.
Rising global instability
“We are already in a hybrid World War 3 – there will be no conventional one, at least with Russia,” Riva stated.
Riva also highlighted escalating global instability stemming from North-West Africa, noting the geopolitical friction caused by ideological aspirations for a “Greater Morocco.” This encompasses Morocco's de facto control of Western Sahara, territorial tensions with Spain over Ceuta and Melilla, and historical military confrontations with Algeria and Mali.
Pressure on the government
These multiplying global threats are compounding pressure on Burnham’s government. Former Conservative MP Simon Clarke heavily criticised the delay in outlining higher defence spending, warning: “Things may be about to become very serious indeed – much more so than is widely appreciated.”
Echoing these concerns, Chief of the Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton called this the most dangerous period since the Cold War. Warning that Britain must prepare for “much greater, longer conflicts,” Knighton cautioned that this volatile environment will force the UK to rethink its national priorities.
Across Europe, leaders share this alarm, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently warning that Russia is actively plotting to test NATO's eastern flank.
Ultimately, while fears of mass conscription may be premature, consensus is growing that the UK must urgently prepare for a confrontation fought across information networks and critical infrastructure.
