John Swinney will insist that “the stars are aligning” for independence, with the Scottish First Minister claiming that 2026 has been “a turning point” in the country’s “journey towards statehood”.
His speech to the SNP conference in Aberdeen will go on to claim that the unionist parties at Westminster are “weaker than they have ever been”.
Record fifth term and UK-wide nationalist gains
He will seek to press the case for another vote in the wake of elections in May which saw the SNP win a record fifth term in government at Holyrood, while fellow nationalists Plaid Cymru secured an historic victory in Wales, ousting Labour from power in the Senedd.
With a Sinn Féin First Minister in Northern Ireland, Mr Swinney will stress the point that “in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, every First Minister now supports our nations’ right to self-determination”.
He will tell his party’s supporters that “one by one, the stars are aligning in our favour”.
Turning point despite no overall majority
Had the SNP lost May’s Scottish Parliament election, the case for independence “would have been set back decades”, Mr Swinney will add.
While the SNP won the Holyrood ballot, the party failed to win the overall majority Mr Swinney had set as a target for trying to force a second referendum in the face of Westminster opposition.
Despite that, Mr Swinney will declare that this year “has been a turning point in Scotland’s journey towards statehood”.
Adding that “there is no turning back”, he will claim: “The SNP is making the weather. And make no mistake – the wind is now firmly in the sails of Scotland’s independence movement.”
Prime Minister’s olive branch and Tory criticism
Mr Swinney’s address to the SNP conference comes the day after Andy Burnham made his first major speech in Scotland since moving into Downing Street.
The Prime Minister used that to extend an olive branch to Mr Swinney, saying he wanted to work together on giving more power to local communities.
Speaking in Motherwell, the Labour leader said he wanted to “move beyond the old politics of conflict” as he offered to work with the SNP to deepen devolution in Scotland.
Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay said: “John Swinney is like a broken record. All he wants to talk about is his obsession with breaking up the UK.
“Meanwhile in the real world, Scots want to see him bring down their bills and fix crumbling public services.
“The Scottish Conservatives understand the seriousness of the threat from this star-gazing separatist to our country’s stability, security and prosperity.”
