Reform UK is determined to carry the momentum of its Clacton by-election victory forward as the party faces the challenge of winning over the voters it needs to put Nigel Farage in Downing Street. Mr Farage will return to Parliament with a bigger majority after Thursday's election, where he increased both the number of votes and his share of the total vote.
Analyst outlines voter groups
Election analyst Luke Tryl of More in Common set out the challenge ahead for Reform to secure wins across the country in the national election due in August 2029. This involves cementing support among “the group we call the ‘second 15%’, the voters that Reform has gained since the general election.”
Mr Tryl said this bloc tends to be less enthusiastic about Mr Farage than those who voted for Reform in July 2024, but they “share their disillusionment with mainstream politics.” He said: “These are the voters that are now to play for, and that Reform will need to win back to escape their slump.”
Politico’s poll of polls shows support for Reform has dipped from 31% in October to 24% this month, with Andy Burnham’s Labour moving into first place on 25%.
Party and supporters respond
A Reform spokesperson stressed the party’s readiness to build on the momentum from the emphatic win in Clacton, saying: “Nigel put his record directly to the electorate and the people of Clacton gave their verdict. By winning more votes than he did in 2024, Nigel has vindicated his decision to take on the establishment and call this by-election. Now we take that momentum forward. Reform is growing, our supporters are motivated and we are ready to take that fight to the rest of the country.”
Political scientist and commentator Matthew Goodwin, who stood for Reform in the Gorton and Denton by-election, is confident the party can build the support it needs. He said: “[What] we need to do is build a broad coalition of hardworking, law-abiding, patriotic British people who are fed up with being treated like second-class citizens in their own country.”
As well as winning over people who backed other parties, he said, Reform needed to connect with non-voters who have “given up on politics”. He said: “We've got to bring them back into the political system, a bit like Brexit did. We've got to get them excited about an alternative to mass uncontrolled immigration, an alternative to broken borders, and an alternative to record taxes and soaring energy bills.” Mr Goodwin said he was sure the party could get over 30% in the polls again.
Opposition and risks
Labour was able to win 412 of Westminster's 650 seats with less than 34% of the vote in the July 2024 election. Mr Farage’s opponents in Parliament will hope the investigation by the standards watchdog into a £5million gift to Mr Farage will result in a further by-election being triggered in Clacton. Thursday's by-election was boycotted by the country's major parties, but a Tory source said the party would be “ready to fight it and offer people a genuine Conservative voice”.
More in Common's Mr Tryl said the “real risk” from the controversy showed up in focus groups with voters asking if Reform is “just more of the same”. But he added: “[In] Clacton, we spoke to many voters who form Reform’s core, who voted for the party in the 2024 general election and remain enthusiastically behind Farage. For some of these voters, the finance row seems like an establishment stitch-up; for others it was ‘no worse than what all politicians get up to’. Among this group, we haven’t seen Nigel Farage’s approval rating drop; and the Clacton by-election proves that they are still motivated to turn out and vote for him.”
