The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, faces mounting pressure after Pauline Hanson declared One Nation is 'here for the long haul' following a historic Farrer byelection victory that has sparked internal rumblings about his leadership just three months into his tenure.
The rightwing populist party secured its first federal lower house seat on Saturday night, as David Farley defeated independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. The result was catastrophic for the Coalition, which had held the seat for its entire 76-year history. The Liberals suffered a swing of more than 30%, with their primary vote sinking below 13%. Taylor described it as an 'existential situation for the Coalition.' The Nationals polled just under 10%.
One Nation's Triumph
'It's not just a win for One Nation or Pauline Hanson – that's not the big picture here. What I'm looking at is the win for Australia,' Hanson told Sky News on Sunday morning. 'We are now taking on the major political parties. [They] have been so arrogant for too long, disregarding, disrespecting, taking the voters out there for granted and knowing that they run this country into the ground. I want my country back. I want to bring back prosperity.'
In a message to critics who note Hanson's historically dysfunctional party has unravelled before, she said: 'People say, you know, you know they won't last long. I'm telling you now, we're going to be here for the long haul.'
Coalition Leadership Doubts
The Liberals were expecting to lose Farrer due to One Nation's popularity and an expected backlash from locals over the ousting of Sussan Ley, who had held the seat for 25 years. However, the scale of the collapse in the primary vote shocked and alarmed some MPs, who were privately questioning Taylor's leadership as the postmortem began on Sunday morning.
Taylor said the Liberals would take 'hard lessons' from the result, which he attributed in part to the chaos of two Coalition splits and a 'shift away' from traditional values. The comments appeared to pin blame on Ley, who oversaw two breaks with the Nationals during her nine months in the role.
Ley issued a pointed statement on Saturday night that suggested the Coalition was in a worse position now than when Taylor unseated her. 'On the day the leadership spilled in February, the new leader said the Liberal Party needed to 'change or die',' her statement read. 'Three months later, the result in Farrer demonstrates that statement to be far truer today than it ever was then.'
Internal Criticism
One Liberal MP said the Farrer result was the 'price of undermining and destroying the leadership of Sussan Ley.' The same MP criticised the party's decision to preference Farley ahead of Milthorpe on how-to-vote cards as a 'betrayal of Liberal values' that gave permission for supporters to switch to the rightwing party. Taylor defended the decision, saying it was what Liberals in Farrer wanted.
The defeat has renewed doubts among moderate MPs about Taylor and the direction of the party under his leadership, which appears focused on stemming the exodus to One Nation rather than re-positioning the Liberals in the political centre. Liberals fear the party has become 'reactive' to One Nation's agenda, including on immigration.
Two MPs said while there was no immediate threat to Taylor's leadership, colleagues – particularly those in the lower house – would start to get 'agitated' if the situation did not improve. 'The loss [in Farrer] will fire the starter's gun on more leadership speculation with the Coalition,' one MP said.
The former Liberal senator Hollie Hughes – a supporter of Ley and vocal critic of Taylor – used social media to mock the opposition leader. 'Guess when you knife someone, country people don't reward you …,' she posted on Facebook.
Future Prospects
The shadow treasurer, Tim Wilson, who along with Andrew Hastie has been touted as a future leadership contender, said the Liberals needed to be 'bigger, better, bolder' in response to a 'serious situation.' Speaking on the ABC's Insiders program, the Liberal moderate did not shut down the prospect of working with One Nation in a minority government after the next election.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said the Farrer result was a 'bloodbath' for the Coalition that casts doubt on Taylor's future. 'Angus Taylor went big on division and lost really badly,' he told Sky News. Chalmers said the result showed the Coalition would need to join forces with One Nation if it wanted to return to government, leaving Labor as the only party left in the 'sensible centre of Australian politics.'
