Voters in regional New South Wales have a long history of putting a stick in the eye of major parties, with Saturday's solid win by One Nation's David Farley in the Farrer by-election being the latest example. Before community independents reshaped urban politics, rural and regional electorates had elected independents and defectors such as Peter Andren, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Gee.
The Liberal Party received just over 12% of the vote in the electorate where it was founded in 1944, a remarkable loss of public confidence. By-elections are usually a judgment on the ruling party, but in this case it was a judgment on the opposition, although some traditional Labor voters also switched to One Nation.
Whether One Nation can hold onto its newly elected representative or develop implementable policies remains to be seen. History suggests Farley may end up on the crossbenches before the next election in 2027, as has happened to other One Nation representatives. Farley is a better calibre of candidate than usual for One Nation, which may make him less susceptible to the charms of his leader.
The sense of grievance that One Nation tapped into is real and not easily resolved. The economic and administrative structure built over 30 years cannot simply be dismantled. Reworking the Murray Darling Basin plan, reinvesting in health, housing and social infrastructure, and restoring hope require clear vision and determination, which are in short supply.
There are lessons from One Nation's short-term success in Queensland in 1998, when it won 11 seats but was reduced to one independent by the end of the term. Peter Beattie's sunny demeanour and economic recovery, with unemployment falling below 5%, routed One Nation in 2001. The gap between voter disgruntlement and leaders' skills has widened as neoliberal shortcomings have affected more people.
