One Nation, the Australian populist party led by Pauline Hanson, is facing a significant vulnerability that could undermine its political influence. The party's "Trump-sized Achilles heel" has been exposed through consecutive electoral defeats, known as "back-to-back Barries," a term referencing the party's poor performance in the New South Wales state election in the seat of Barwon.
The Electoral Setbacks
In the 2023 New South Wales election, One Nation failed to secure any seats, marking a decline from its previous presence. This was followed by a similar outcome in the 2025 federal election, where the party's primary vote dropped. These losses highlight a pattern of diminishing support, particularly in regional areas that were once strongholds.
Parallels to Trump
Analysts draw comparisons to Donald Trump's political vulnerabilities, noting that One Nation's reliance on a charismatic leader and populist rhetoric may not sustain long-term growth. The party's inability to expand beyond a narrow base or adapt to changing voter concerns has left it exposed to competition from major parties and other minor parties.
Internal and External Challenges
Internally, One Nation has faced organizational issues, including candidate selection controversies and leadership disputes. Externally, issues such as economic management and healthcare have overshadowed the party's core messages on immigration and sovereignty. The rise of other populist movements, such as the United Australia Party, has also fragmented the right-wing vote.
Future Prospects
To revive its fortunes, One Nation may need to broaden its policy platform and improve its grassroots organization. However, with the next federal election potentially two years away, the party faces an uphill battle to regain relevance. The "back-to-back Barries" serve as a stark warning that populist movements must evolve or risk irrelevance.
