Donald Trump's popularity has plummeted in solidly Republican Ohio, with a new poll showing 56% of registered voters disapprove of his job performance, as the president prepares to visit the state to campaign for two Republicans in key midterm races.
On Saturday, Trump will visit Montgomery county, which he only barely lost in 2024, to rally for incumbent US senator Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy, the candidate for Ohio governor. Both are struggling in their races, with Husted polling behind his Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown and Ramaswamy behind Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate.
Ohio has been solidly Republican for more than a decade, with Trump winning the state by handy margins in the past three presidential elections and the party holding a supermajority in the state legislature. But his presence may be more of a hindrance than a help, according to a Marist poll of nearly 1,300 registered Ohio voters conducted late last month.
Voters' grievances
Kelly Savage-Radich, a mother of three who lives in a Montgomery county suburb of Dayton, voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but now faces the prospect of selling one of her family's vehicles due to high gas costs. Her grocery bill has gone up about $100 a week, and she lays the blame squarely at the Trump administration's door.
“He wants his name on everything,” she said. “I'm sorry, but I don't give a shit whose name is on the Kennedy Center.”
Savage-Radich also brought up the killing of Renee Good in Minneapolis earlier this year, saying: “The shooting of an American citizen dead in the street, and no one was held accountable? I have two daughters, and I'm trying to teach them all the freedoms this country has, but it feels like our freedoms are being taken.”
Turnout concerns
In two important primaries held earlier this year, turnout for Republicans in Montgomery county was just two-thirds of that for Democrats. In last May's Republican gubernatorial primary, turnout was down 33% or 362,000 votes compared to the previous primary held in 2022.
Montgomery county, a mix of urban, suburban and rural communities, has been a swing county for decades. In the presidential election two years ago, Trump lost it by just 1,201 votes, one of just seven of 88 counties in Ohio to fall Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's way.
Phil Plummer, the chair of the Montgomery county Republican party and a member of the Ohio house of representatives, admitted that the county's leading Republicans are in a fight. “You know, it's been slower [than in previous election cycles], but it's picking up. Honestly, I haven't seen much energy on either side, but we're getting more interest, people are getting engaged,” he said.
Economic concerns and independents
Plummer said that during the Biden administration too much money was printed in the form of hundreds of billions of dollars in federal tax breaks and investment spending, which has fueled higher costs today. Democrats say Biden's spending surge was to combat the economic recession caused by the 2020 pandemic and point to Trump's war on Iran costing Americans more than $44bn.
“Obviously, the war [on Iran] hasn't helped as far as oil prices, but Ohio has been deemed the number one state to do business in the nation. We're moving the ball in Ohio; we've lowered property tax and cut income tax,” he said. “So we're doing the best we can.”
Few residents care to talk politics in the neighborhoods of Dayton, Montgomery county's largest city. “Trump? I think he's a disaster,” said a woman who declined to give her name as she stood outside a tattoo parlor in the Old North district.
Bill, a former nurse and Republican voter who asked not to be fully identified in order to speak freely, disagreed and said the wider focus on rising gas prices was misplaced. “It's always been crazy high, and people will buy a whole lot of gas at $2.99 but act like it's out of control when it's $3,” he says, adding that he has not decided whether he will vote in the midterms yet.
Independents are set to play a major role in deciding Ohio's next governor and the senate race between Husted and Brown. Nearly 38% of Ohio voters, or 2.9 million people, are independents, according to the Independent Voter Project.
Sandeep Dixit, running as an independent candidate for US house of representatives in north-east Ohio's 13th district, says the biggest issue voters are talking about is the hate-filled language coming from the political class. “People understand that if we continue with extreme positions the country's going to get torn apart,” he said. “That's the number one issue.”
For Savage-Radich, there have never been clearer choices. “I would never vote for Ramaswamy, I don't believe anything he says – I don't believe anything any Republican says right now because every time I fact-check something, they're lying,” she said. “And now we're like buddies with China? It's all crazy. I thought Republicans were the party that was so against China?”
She said she doesn't know a lot about Acton, the Democratic candidate, but noted she was working as the director of the Ohio department of health under a Republican governor. “She didn't do anything that Mike DeWine didn't have her do, and that's a Republican governor,” she said. “To be honest, I think I'm going to vote Democrat all the way down, for everything. Because I want it not to be this way.”
