Few things did more to keep Labour out of power for a decade and a half until Sir Keir Starmer’s victory two years ago than a 15-word message that was meant to stay secret. It was left by Liam Byrne, Treasury Chief Secretary in Gordon Brown’s outgoing Labour Government, for his successor David Laws, a member of the Tory-Lib Dem Coalition that ousted them in 2010. The handwritten note simply read: “Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards – and good luck! Liam.” It was naive Byrne’s idea of a jest - and a private one at that.
But it was made public by the ruthless Tories who used it relentlessly over the next ten years as “proof” that Labour could not be trusted with the nation’s finances. And it worked.
Now, at 14 words in length, one of the thousands of secret exchanges revealed in the Mandelson files is one word shorter than the infamous Byrne memo. But it could wreak as much damage to Labour, whoever leads the Party into the next election, as Byrne’s rash message did in three successive defeats in 2015, 2017 and 2019. It is part of a series of candid online conversations between Mandelson and Pat McFadden, a senior member of Starmer’s Cabinet and widely regarded as one of his key loyalists - until now at least.
Mandelson does not hold back, sometimes writing at 4am Washington time such is his frustration, saying Starmer “lacks verve” and describing his No 10 as “beleaguered and bereft” and with no “panache” or “dynamism.” All of which is useful ammunition for Starmer’s - and Labour’s - political opponents.
But it is a politically lethal comment by McFadden in one of their exchanges that is likely to be thrown in Labour’s face with devastating consequences from now until the next election, and probably after that as well. McFadden, responsible for trying to curb the soaring bill for welfare benefits, laments: “Every meeting I have is ‘who can we tax to pay benefits to others.’ They are asking the wrong questions.” It is a jaw dropping observation.
Reform and the Tories, likely to be the main threat to Labour at the next election, constantly claim that Labour is too soft on welfare. Now they have a 14-word killer slogan for their next poster campaign against Labour - helpfully composed for them by a Labour Cabinet Minister. It is short, simple, powerful and unforgettable: “Every meeting I have is ‘who can we tax to pay benefits to others.’” Labour may never live it down.
If Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch had come up with a slogan like that to attack Labour, the Labour Party would have justifiably cried foul and accused them of “dog whistle politics.” Now Mandelson and McFadden have blown the whistle on Starmer and Labour for them. As well as being a repeat of Liam Byrne’s disastrous own goal in 2010, McFadden’s remark has echoes of the first General Election campaign I covered as a Westminster journalist when Margaret Thatcher defeated Labour in 1979. Her victory was credited to a poster showing a long dole queue under the slogan ‘Labour Isn’t Working.’ It was highly effective though dubious: it turned out the people portrayed as unemployed were actors. The Tories didn’t care. They won and stayed in office for 18 years.
They had done what they always do and won power by exposing Labour’s age old Achilles Heel: the charge that it is economically incompetent and soft on welfare. So far Starmer has lived up to this caricature. He has done little to create the economic growth he promised and performed a humiliating U turn on his pledge to slash the benefits bill after a revolt by left wing MPs. Polls show the soaring welfare bill remains one of the biggest complaints among voters against the Government - including Labour voters.
If Starmer is replaced by Andy Burnham, who is to the Left politically of the Prime Minister, there seems little prospect that he would crack down on benefits claimants. And so in two to three years, when the next election will be held, regardless of who leads it, Labour can be expected to be called on to answer what may be known as the McFadden question: ‘Who is it taxing to pay benefits to others.’ Unless it has a convincing answer it can expect only one result: defeat. Any Labour MP who doesn’t believe that should speak to Liam Byrne.
