Monica Lennon's elimination means the Scottish Labour leadership race will be an all-male contest between Michael Marra and Joe Fagan. The reasons for the Glasgow MSP's failure to make the ballot are varied and complex.
Marra's Tactical Moves
Marra had a slow first week in the contest because his efforts were focused on hoovering up nominations to stop her being a candidate. His team's actions, which were successful, had two primary motivations. One, Marra does not like Lennon personally or politically. Two, his team felt they had a duty to stop someone they believed would be unable to lead the party.
Another reason for Lennon falling short is her support for trans rights alienated female parliamentarians who are gender critical. Left wing MSP Carol Mochan, an opponent of gender self-ID, nominated Lennon at the last moment - and even then it was through gritted teeth. Lennon was never part of a Labour tribe - she is more effective working cross-party - and she had no gang to back her up.
Potential Self-Harm
However, the decision to keep her off the ballot may yet prove to be another act of self-harm by Labour. To win again at Holyrood, Scottish Labour needs to win back some of the SNP and Green voters lost over countless elections. Lennon is popular among pro-independence voters and has a reach beyond the narrow confines of a rapidly dwindling Labour vote. She is Labour, but events of the previous two weeks have confirmed she is not part of the Labour club.
Her departure will see two able moderates who agree on most aspects of policy going head-to-head. It will not be a contest based on ideology, or how to win over pro-indy voters, but will likely focus on niche Labour concerns designed to woo a relatively tiny group of people. This is a shame because what Scottish Labour needs, more than any other party, is a no-holds-barred debate on their abject failures of the last twenty years.
Party Decline
The SNP Government is a flawed Government with a questionable track record, but they stay in power because they stand unashamedly for independence. Scottish Labour has no cause and voters are confused about whose side they are on when constitutional, economic and social issues flare up. This is a party that has lost nearly 500,000 constituency votes since 1999, and their membership is also in freefall. In football terms, they would be bottom of Scottish League One.
Whoever wins next month must do something bolder and more radical than the many previous leaders who have presided over steady decline. Marra has intellectual heft, but can he overcome his innate caution to move on from the past? Fagan is a hands-on politician, but will voters see him as a credible candidate for First Minister? The stakes used to be high, but even the voters are yawning.
