Despite 56% of Londoners saying Sir Sadiq Khan should stand down and let a different Labour candidate contest the 2028 mayoral election, polling suggests he would almost certainly win a fourth term if he sought one. Labour remains the most popular party in London, and when the race is framed around candidate preference, Sir Sadiq is significantly ahead of rivals.
Voter Sentiment and Polling Details
A YouGov poll found that even in the traditional Labour stronghold of Inner London, 52% of voters say Sir Sadiq should not stand for a fourth term. In Outer London, where he is less popular, the figure rises to 57%.
The vast majority of Conservative and Reform UK voters take the view that Sir Sadiq should stand down, by 81% and 93% respectively. However, four out of ten Labour supporters at the 2024 general election also share this view, according to the survey. Almost a third of voters, 31%, who put Sir Sadiq back in City Hall two years ago also say he should stand aside.
Demographic Breakdown
More men than women in the capital believe it is time for Sir Sadiq to move on, by 58% to 54%. Eight out of ten Londoners aged 65 and over think the Mayor should make do with three terms in office. Two-thirds of the 50 to 64 age group take this view, as do 48% of Londoners aged 25 to 49, and 41% of 18 to 24-year-olds.
Key to the poll results is the questions asked. The YouGov survey was a single question on this issue as part of a broader mayoral poll which had other findings that do not make good reading for Sir Sadiq.
Potential Contenders and Election Dynamics
Other possible Labour mayoral contenders include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, former Foreign Secretary David Lammy, MP for Tottenham, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan. The Mayor, who was made a peer by Sir Keir Starmer, has signalled he will decide next year whether to seek another four years in City Hall.
Reform picked former Tory Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham early, and she is making a name for herself, partly with her stinging criticism of Sir Sadiq on law and order. Former Home Secretary Sir James Cleverly has emerged as the early frontrunner to be the Tory contender, but Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch is searching far and wide for the person who would be her party’s strongest candidate.
If Sir Sadiq did go for a fourth term, a contest against former London Assembly member Sir James could be close, though Labour would still be the frontrunner. Alternatively, Ms Cunningham might succeed in getting into a two-way run-off against Labour under the supplementary vote system used for the London mayoral election, but she may find it harder to win once second preference votes are counted.
