Kemi Badenoch faces the most important 12 months of her political life. The Conservative leader helped end the Starmer-Reeves era. Now she must stop Andy Burnham from leading a Labour renaissance. Millions of voters are forming their first impression of the former Mayor of Greater Manchester; Badenoch must ensure they vote against him and his party.
Stop Andy Burnham charming the country
Badenoch has enjoyed a personal renaissance in the past year. A year ago, just 19% of Britons saw her favourably. Now one in three sees her this way, with YouGov saying her "net favourability score of -11 is her highest to date."
It was one thing to pummel Sir Keir Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions as he reeled from the winter fuel fiasco, the National Insurance hike, the family farm tax raid and the Mandelson scandal. Now she faces an experienced and affable northern PM who delights in public performance.
Burnham has a net favourability rating of +3. Dragging that into negative territory is a priority for Badenoch. Labour hopes the sight of a PM for an Essex seat attacking a northern PM and Chancellor will rally voters in their heartland constituencies. Badenoch needs to reach Red Wall voters and convince them to choose Conservatives over Labour or Reform UK.
Despite the "Kemi bounce," Tory ratings remain miserable. YouGov puts the Conservatives in third place (20%), behind Labour (21%) and Reform (23%). If she leads the party to first place by year-end, the party will have real hopes of taking power in 2029 (Labour won 412 constituencies with 34% of the vote). If the Tories are still behind, ambitious Tories will suggest the party needs someone else.
Defeat Reform UK
The Conservatives chose not to stand against Nigel Farage in Clacton in his self-triggered by-election. If there is a second by-election, pressure on Badenoch to end Farage’s days as an MP will be intense.
A crucial test comes in the May elections to councils and mayoralties. New unitary authorities will have their first contests, and Badenoch must stop this being a blaze of glory for Reform. If people fed up with Labour choose Reform, worries will deepen that the Conservatives have lost national reach. But a bad night for Reform will fuel the narrative that Farage’s party has a slow puncture and that its double-digit lead is gone.
The locals will also be the first major test of Burnham’s popularity. A disastrous set of results would plunge Labour into post-regicide crisis. Below the radar, Badenoch needs to revive Tory constituency associations where activists have abandoned the party for Reform. She needs committed, well-trained, super-resourced pavement warriors.
Own the economy
The Tories were doomed when Liz Truss’s mini-Budget ignited market turmoil and voters blamed interest rate hikes on her policies. The Conservative reputation for stability was torched by Brexit wars, and trust in economic competence was shredded.
Badenoch needs to win Britons’ trust that she can bring down their cost of living and restore real growth. By turning against net zero policies and British membership of the ECHR, she has made it harder for right-wingers to justify jumping to Reform, but the election will be won or lost on the economy.
If she wants to win back voters in the growth-hungry north and reclaim the Blue Wall from the Liberal Democrats, she must convince the country she is their best hope for prosperity. This is a daunting challenge, but her zeal for the job is not in question and she displays raw talent at Prime Minister’s Questions. She does not want to go down in history as one of Britain’s almost-PMs, and she knows there is not a moment to lose.
