Zack Polanski has more than tripled Green Party membership in England and Wales in less than a year as leader, boosting poll ratings from about 10% to near 20% and shocking Reform UK and Labour by winning the Gorton and Denton byelection. However, some party figures fear that Andy Burnham, the affable, left-leaning mayor of Greater Manchester, could win back disillusioned voters.
Poll Volatility and Labour's Shift
A week after Keir Starmer said he would resign, YouGov polling showed Labour up two points and the Greens down by the same amount. This year alone, a five-point Labour lead over the Greens has become a similar margin in favour of the Greens, and then a seven-point advantage for Labour. Many Greens acknowledge that Burnham might be a different proposition to take on.
Separate YouGov polling released this week showed that 85% of 2024 Labour voters had a favourable impression of Polanski's party, highlighting the cross-appeal that has driven Green success.
Internal Concerns and Optimism
“A lot of the impact Zack has had in these first nine months has been because there was a clear space for an affable leader who is to the left of Keir Starmer, and there now will be questions about whether that space is still there,” one senior Green said. “If we have a PM who is seen as more left, us simply going further to the left isn’t going to deliver the results we want.”
Others in the party are more sanguine, noting that many Greens fled Labour due to issues Burnham is unlikely to address, such as a tougher line on Gaza and Israel and full nationalisation of utilities like water. “Burnham definitely is showing a bit of leg when it comes to policies more from the left, but I suspect there is not much more than that to it,” another senior Green said.
Electoral Success and Changing Perceptions
After the Gorton and Denton byelection, where the Greens overturned a huge Labour majority, party officials say people no longer see them as a wasted vote. “More people have now voted Green than ever before and historically when people do it once, they tend to do it again,” one party official said. “There is a huge pool of people who have voted Green, feel good about it, and won’t go back to Labour unless there is a really good reason to do so. There is no panic.”
However, not all are positive. Some Greens note that the initial shine has come off Polanski due to his hectic schedule and scrutiny over his council tax. There is also an internal tussle between longer-standing Greens focused on the environment and newer arrivals sharing Polanski's focus on wealth taxes.
Target Seat Strategy
The party is debating how many seats to target at the next elections, with a worry about spreading resources too thinly, replicating the Liberal Democrat experience in 2019. Work is continuing to analyse local election results, and an interim number of targets has been upgraded.
Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, warned: “It has been easy for Zack Polanski, because he could basically run a very simple morality play with Keir Starmer as the pantomime villain... I think it’s harder to cast Burnham, at least early on, in the same sort of role. He is a much more effective communicator... The vibe environment will be less favourable to them. They’re not going to just win that by default.”
