Andy Burnham's keynote speech at the Labour Conference was long on emotion but short on details, according to The London Standard's Melanie McDonagh. The speech, which touched on renationalising utilities, housing, a National Care Service, the triple lock, electoral reform and possibly reversing Brexit, drew comparisons to the era of Margaret Thatcher.
Burnham's palpable emotion about his father's death was human and real, McDonagh noted. However, she pointed out that the national debt is currently near £3 trillion, almost 95 per cent of GDP, up from 35 per cent in 2007/8. Servicing the debt costs about £109 billion a year.
The sums don't stack up
McDonagh questioned how the plans would be funded, noting that some of Sir Keir Starmer's policies, such as increasing National Insurance contributions, ended up as a tax on employment. Burnham has reformed the triple lock, promising a link between pensions and earnings instead.
However, as Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out, the savings, starting in 2030, come nowhere near the costs of a decent at-home care service. McDonagh added that the assisted suicide bill getting nowhere was fortunate, as it could have tempted some to encourage elderly relatives to save on care home bills.
London should be wary, very wary
McDonagh warned London to be wary of any attempt to introduce an additional property tax based on land value, as it would fall disproportionately on the capital. One approach would be to reinstate the health and social care levy on all wage-earners, which was scrapped by Liz Truss. McDonagh described it as honest, an insurance policy against old age, and something that says what it is.
Elephants in the room
McDonagh raised the issue of cutting other spending, which would require Burnham to take on his backbenchers and Cabinet colleagues. She pointed to the cost of welfare: an estimated £77.1 billion on disability benefits this year, with £3.4 billion spent on Personal Independence Payments (Pips) for those with mental health issues such as anxiety and depression.
McDonagh suggested scrapping Pips, calling it a perverse encouragement for people to magnify problems in their heads to be paid for them. She noted that Burnham says his savings will come through investing in people, not crude cuts.
The other issue is immigration. More than 18,000 illegal arrivals have been recorded so far this year, and more than a million people came to Britain annually in four years during the Boriswave. Most were dependents and families of workers, not working in the care sector. Unless their path to citizenship is reviewed, this will entail vast future spending in terms of benefits and services.
McDonagh concluded that the hard business of thinking it through remains.
