Andy Burnham is seriously considering calling a general election for next May, a move that could end in chaos, according to political analysts. The Prime Minister, riding high in the polls, wants a mandate beyond the recent Makerfield by-election, where 24,927 voters backed him.
Reasons for the Gamble
Burnham is currently bound by the 2024 Labour manifesto, which limits his ability to raise income tax, National Insurance, and VAT. Since nearly all of his plans involve spending billions, that is a problem. He also sees opposition parties in disarray. The Green Party is in disarray, with voters questioning Zack Polanski's judgment. On the right, Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe stretched the limits of decency by refusing to say whether King Charles can be called a white Briton. Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election, but Reform polls below Burnham's resurgent Labour. Kemi Badenoch is impressing as Conservative Party leader, but the Tories remain a sullied brand.
Risks and Historical Precedents
Burnham knows there are dangers in going to the country so quickly. Keir Starmer's massive landslide gave Labour just over 400 seats, but Burnham doesn't have a chance of winning that many. So a lot of his MPs will lose their jobs and salaries. He will probably lose even more MPs if he waits until 2029, but at least the troops will pocket a couple more years of pay and pension. Yet Burnham may still go for it. He will recall Gordon Brown, who was tempted to call a snap election after replacing Tony Blair as PM in 2007. Brown bottled it, the financial crisis followed, and Labour was wiped out in 2010. Burnham doesn't want to go down as a bottler too.
Economic and Coalition Concerns
Election talk risks rattling the UK economy and pound, warns Gary Howes, currency expert at Poundsterling.com. Howes is convinced Burnham will go for an election having kicked off his tenure with “a series of little giveaways that attract glowing headlines”. He argues: "Only a campaigner with a short-term scope does this." But he warns it will trigger still more turbulence in a country that’s now had seven prime ministers in 10 years. History shows the pound struggles when political uncertainty is high, as businesses and households stop spending, Howes said.
There's a bigger worry in my book. Burnham's gamble risks triggering coalition chaos as the two-party system collapses. A Labour-Lib Dem-Green coalition is the worst-case scenario, as Burnham, Polanski, and that rubber-clad Lib Dem bloke outdo each other to tax, spend, and rant about Gaza. That would bring the economy to its knees, crush the pound, light a rocket under borrowing costs, and trigger a bond market revolt. Given all the risks, he might just decide to stick it out until 2029. It could be safer for all of us.
