Kemi Badenoch needs to show the Tories can do more than remain the second biggest party. The challenge confronting her as she runs through drafts of next week’s conference speech is to persuade the country she should be prime minister, not just save her party from annihilation.
Blows on Starmer and the New Challenge
Her vociferous onslaughts at Prime Minister’s Questions left Sir Keir Starmer reeling, and now she faces a vastly more charismatic and experienced leader. Mrs Badenoch needs to assure the Tory faithful next week she can demolish Andy Burnham’s dreams of leading a Labour revival while winning back legions of centre-Right voters from Reform UK.
Thanks to Mr Burnham’s plans to unpick the pension lock and put Brexit into reverse, she has two powerful issues on which to campaign. But she must convince Conservative donors and door-knockers alike she is not leading them towards a Neil Kinnock-style glorious defeat. If she delivers a poor speech the party will head into the winter full of toxic worry.
Polling and the Battle for Right-Leaning Voters
Last year, YouGov polling suggested the Tories were in danger of an electoral catastrophe which would leave them with just 45 MPs, behind the Liberal Democrats (78), Labour (144) and Reform (311). It is a success of sorts that Reform is now forecast to finish third with 123 MPs, with the Conservatives slightly ahead on 130 and Labour on 241 – but such a result would pave the way for a Labour-led coalition which would drag Britain to the Left.
Plus, the Tories cannot bank on the decline in Reform’s fortunes when billionaires stand ready to pump cash into Nigel Farage’s party. When on Saturday night the Tories unveiled their plan to deport foreign criminals, Reform’s Zia Yusuf harrumphed that the Conservatives are “shamelessly copying” their policies. He should not be surprised. The two parties are locked in a fierce battle for Right-leaning Britons.
The Opportunity of the Conference Speech
Mrs Badenoch wants to signal she shares the values of millions of citizens tempted by Reform but convince them that voting Conservative is the best way of turning their hopes into reality. To win power she needs millions of Britons to wake up on polling day and think: “Kemi Badenoch is the change this country needs.” One conference speech won’t work that magic but it’s a precious opportunity to capture your attention, even a few fleeting seconds.
Imagine the British electorate is a vast swimming pool. The task of a Tory leader in Opposition is to drip a drop of blue ink into it every day in the hope of changing the political colour of the nation. A conference speech is traditionally a rare day when you can tip in a whole inkpot, but to win a decisive majority Mrs Badenoch needs to get hold of a firehose.
