Kemi Badenoch is due to deliver her keynote speech to the Conservative Party conference on Wednesday, with the stakes raised by Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham's left-wing address to his own conference last week. The Conservative leader is expected to highlight policies including keeping the state pension triple lock and scrapping rules that remove free childcare from high earners. There are also rumours of potential good news on cutting or ending inheritance tax, though nothing will be confirmed until the speech itself.
Burnham's voting system plan
One of the most consequential announcements in Mr Burnham's speech was his plan to change the UK's voting system. While electoral reform and proportional representation may not sound exciting, the move is hugely important. Introducing proportional representation could lock the Conservatives out of power more or less forever, potentially leading to a permanent Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition and a left-wing government in perpetuity.
Impact on future coalitions
Lib Dem voters come in all shapes and sizes, and many have no love for Labour, with natural Conservatives sometimes switching to the Lib Dems when unhappy with the Tories. However, Lib Dem activists and MPs are left-wingers. Proportional representation would almost certainly mean no party in Parliament has a majority, forcing parties to work together. Unless voting habits change significantly, the Lib Dems would hold the balance of power and decide who runs the country.
While the Lib Dems did a deal with the Tories in 2010, they now regard this as a terrible mistake. That was when the Conservatives were led by David Cameron, a self-proclaimed liberal. The Tories have moved to the right since then and are likely to stay there, so proportional representation is expected to produce a Labour-Lib Dem alliance time after time. Fringe parties like the Greens could also join the left-wing coalition.
Obstacles and consequences
Mr Burnham faces one obstacle: many of his own MPs hate the idea of proportional representation because they do not want to be in a coalition with the Lib Dems. They prefer the current system, which gives Labour a chance of winning an overall majority. But if he gets his way, Labour will change the voting system if it wins the next general election. Mrs Badenoch and her Tory team need to stop that happening, or risk being exiled from power for the foreseeable future.
