Kemi Badenoch has become the bookies' favourite to be the next prime minister, a development that could derail Andy Burnham's ambition of leading Labour into the 2030s, according to political commentator Robert Taylor.
Why Badenoch Leads the Betting
Despite no surge in personal popularity, Badenoch's odds have shortened. The government remains unpopular but hasn't faced a major crisis. Reform still polls ahead of the Tories. The key shift came when Labour replaced Keir Starmer, making a Labour successor less certain.
Before Starmer's departure, senior Labour figures like Burnham, Miliband, Rayner, Streeting, Cooper, and Healey were tipped. Now, barring a catastrophic premiership, Burnham is expected to fight the next election. The only credible alternatives appear to be Nigel Farage and Badenoch.
Farage's Marmite Factor
Farage isn't favourite despite Reform's poll lead because his polarising appeal may deter voters. Bookies see his 'marmite' quality as a potential downfall. This leaves Badenoch as the narrow favourite, with William Hill offering 3/1 odds, ahead of Farage at 7/2.
For Badenoch to become PM, the Tories would need to win the most seats, ideally at least 325, and potentially form a coalition, likely with Reform. Earlier this year, with Reform at 33% and the Tories ten points behind, this seemed unlikely. Now, with Farage under scrutiny, the path is less far-fetched.
Labour's to Lose?
Taylor believes the election is Labour's to lose, possibly through a coalition with Lib Dems, Greens, or SNP. He fears Burnham could become PM into the 2030s. However, Badenoch has played a patient game, out-polling her party, and the economy is set to be the key issue, which she sees as fertile ground.
A path to power is opening for Badenoch, though narrow and fraught with risks from Burnham, Farage, and others. Taylor concludes that her position as narrow favourite is just about deserved.
